Match Info

Serie B - Round 27

Date: 10 September 2026, Thursday

Location: Estadio Primeiro de Maio (Sao Bernardo)

Referee: Willers Lorenzatto L. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Premiere, SporTV
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	São Bernardo		Londrina

	1	X	2
	1.57	3.7	5.5
	1.63	3.60	5.00
	1.6	3.55	5.3
	1.66	3.91	5.64
	1.62	3.84	5.36	Watch
	1.62	3.85	5.55
	1.6	3.72	5.7
	1.62	3.65	5.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.62 ↓ (1.75)	3.73 ↑ (3.55)	5.41 ↑ (4.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

São Bernardo
57.7%

Draw
25%

Londrina
17.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.1%

26.2%

20.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.2%

23.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

São Bernardo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

Londrina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for São Bernardo than the current prediction. (-10.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with São Bernardo that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Londrina than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Londrina could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
92.9%	7.1%	0%

São Bernardo - Londrina Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. São Bernardo (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: São Bernardo will win (13 of 14 users predict this - 92.86%).
Confidence interval (95%): 79.37% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
10', 0 - 1, Caio Rodrigues ⚽, Joao Vitor (A),
16', Para ↓, Mario Sergio ↑,
43', 1 - 1, Foguinho ⚽, Mario Sergio (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Willian Pottker ↓, Joao Coni ↑,
47', Igor Bahia 🟨,
60', Pedrinho ↓, Leo Jaba ↑,
60', Pedro Vitor ↓, Daniel Amorim ↑,
66', Caio Rodrigues 🟨,
69', Caio Rodrigues ↓, Tarik ↑,
69', Nino Paraiba ↓, Kaue Leonardo ↑,
75', 1 - 2, Tarik ⚽,
76', Felipe Garcia ↓, Lucas Lima ↑,
76', Foguinho ↓, Fabricio Daniel ↑,
82', Heron ↓, Artur ↑,
82', Guilherme Dantas ↓, Joao Tavares ↑,
89', Leo Jaba 🟨,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 14 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: )).

Recent performances by São Bernardo have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Londrina's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, São Bernardo is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in São Bernardo: Jemerson (Yellow Cards) Matheus Salustiano (Knee Injury) Rodrigo Andrade (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Londrina: Geovane Meurer (Injury) Gilberto (Yellow Cards) Kevyn (Yellow Cards) Paulinho Moccelin (Muscle Injury)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, São Bernardo won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:6. (average 1.2:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, São Bernardo won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2. (average 1:1).

Outrights of Brazilian Serie B for now

Sao Bernardo: 0.3%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Sao Bernardo	32	12	9	11	44:34	10	45
18	Londrina	32	7	7	18	40:47	-7	28

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- São Bernardo FC
Brazilian Serie B
06.09.26	Ponte Preta - São Bernardo	0:2 ✺
28.08.26	Goiás - São Bernardo	2:1 ✺
23.08.26	São Bernardo - Náutico Capibaribe	1:1 ✺
19.08.26	Fortaleza - São Bernardo	1:1 ✺
14.08.26	São Bernardo - Botafogo SP	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 WLTTL
- Londrina EC
Brazilian Serie B
06.09.26	Londrina - Operário Ferroviario	1:2 ✺
01.09.26	Londrina - Juventude	0:0 ✺
22.08.26	Ceará - Londrina	2:1 ✺
18.08.26	Londrina - Atlético Goianiense	0:0 ✺
14.08.26	Sport Recife - Londrina	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 LTLTL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
12.05.26	Londrina - São Bernardo	1:3
Brazilian Serie C
11.10.25	Londrina - São Bernardo	1:1
06.09.25	São Bernardo - Londrina	2:2
05.05.25	São Bernardo - Londrina	0:0
19.05.24	Londrina - São Bernardo	2:0

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