Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 25

Date: 29 September 2025, Monday

Location: Estadio Do MorumBIS (Sao Paulo)

Referee: Arleu B. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping
China	K-Ball
Ecuador	El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Mexico	Fanatiz
Usa	Fanatiz


	São Paulo		Ceará

	1	X	2
	1.67	3.4	6	Watch
	1.68	3.35	5.4
	1.68	3.59	6.25
	3.06	2.69	2.73	Watch
	1.7	3.56	5.77	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.96 ↑ (1.63)	3.32 ↓ (3.69)	5.23 ↓ (5.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

São Paulo
50.9%

Draw
30%

Ceará
19.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.3%

25.8%

16%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.2%

26.6%

15.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

São Paulo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that São Paulo's form might have worsened.

Ceará has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (+9.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for São Paulo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ceará than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
76.5%	11.8%	11.8%

São Paulo - Ceará Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. São Paulo will win (votes: 13 - 76.5%). Ceará will win (votes: 2 - 11.8%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 11.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for São Paulo: 56.3% – 96.7%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Ceará (2.20) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): São Paulo will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. São Paulo (votes: 7 - 63.6%). Ceará (votes: 3 - 27.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 9.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Rafael (G) 2. Toloi R. 5. Robert Arboleda (C) 28. Franco A. 6. Soares C. 25. Alisson 21. Bobadilla D. 15. Rodriguinho 13. Diaz E. 10. Luciano 11. Ferreira	94. Bruno Ferreira (G) 70. Fabiano 44. Marcos Victor 23. Willian Machado 79. Matheus Bahia 26. Richardson (C) 20. Diego 97. Lourenco 27. Galeano A. 9. Pedro Raul 17. Paulo Baya
Substitutes
19. Dinenno J. 43. Felipe Negrucci 7. Lucas Moura 45. Lucca Marques 16. Luiz Gustavo 22. Mailton 29. Pablo Maia 77. Rigoni E. 35. Sabino 14. Tapia G. 18. Wendell 50. Young (G)	33. Eder 88. Fernando Sobral 80. Guilherme Luiz 10. Lucas Mugni 3. Marllon 30. Nicolas 7. Pedro Henrique 2. Ramos R. 1. Richard (G) 75. Rodriguinho 29. Vina 25. Vinicius Zanocelo
Coaches
Crespo H.	Leo Conde

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
31', Toloi R. ↓, Sabino ↑,
37', Diego 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Franco A. ↓, Lucas Moura ↑,
46', Paulo Baya ↓, Pedro Henrique ↑,
52', Lourenco 🟨,
56', 0 - 1, Pedro Henrique ⚽,
63', Ferreira ↓, Lucca Marques ↑,
70', Rodriguinho ↓, Mailton ↑,
70', Soares C. ↓, Dinenno J. ↑,
72', Diego ↓, Vinicius Zanocelo ↑,
72', Lourenco ↓, Fernando Sobral ↑,
82', Robert Arboleda 🟨,
85', Galeano A. ↓, Guilherme Luiz ↑,
87', Guilherme Luiz 🟨,
90', Pedro Raul ↓, Vina ↑,
90+4', Dinenno J. 🟨,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 13).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 3.

The current form of both teams is below expectations.

São Paulo may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, São Paulo is considered a favorite.

There will not play in São Paulo: Andre Silva (Knee Injury) Jonathan Calleri (Knee Injury) Ryan Francisco (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Ceará: Aylon (Yellow Cards) Lucas Mugni (Thigh Injury)

There are questionable in São Paulo: Luan Silva (Inactive) Oscar (Back Injury) Soares C. (Illness)

There are questionable in Ceará: Luiz Otavio (Knee Injury)

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 6 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 19:12. (average 1.3:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, São Paulo won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 8:6. (average 1.1:0.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- São Paulo FC
Copa Libertadores
25.09.25	São Paulo - LDU Quito	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
21.09.25	Santos - São Paulo	1:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
18.09.25	LDU Quito - São Paulo	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
14.09.25	São Paulo - Botafogo RJ	1:0 ✺
30.08.25	Cruzeiro - São Paulo	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LLLWL
- Ceará SC
Brazilian Serie A
20.09.25	Ceará - Bahia	1:1 ✺
14.09.25	Vasco da Gama - Ceará	2:2 ✺
30.08.25	Ceará - Juventude	0:1 ✺
23.08.25	Grêmio - Ceará	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
20.08.25	Bahia - Ceará	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 TTLTL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
26.04.25	Ceará - São Paulo	1:1
18.09.22	Ceará - São Paulo	0:2
Copa Sudamericana
10.08.22	Ceará - São Paulo	2:2 penalties
03.08.22	São Paulo - Ceará	1:0
Brazilian Serie A
28.05.22	São Paulo - Ceará	2:2
14.10.21	São Paulo - Ceará	1:1
27.06.21	Ceará - São Paulo	1:1

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