Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 24

Date: 20 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Castelão (Fortaleza)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
China	K-Ball
Mexico	Fanatiz
Usa	Fanatiz


	Ceará		Bahia

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.1	2.9	Watch
	2.8	3	2.7
	2.58	2.92	2.92
	2.67	3.07	3.05
	2.63	2.77	3.10	Watch
	2.68	3.06	2.93	Watch
	2.75	3	2.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.67 ↓ (2.77)	2.99 ↓ (3.03)	2.9 ↑ (2.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ceará
35.6%

Draw
31.7%

Bahia
32.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.9%

30.9%

35.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.5%

30.6%

35.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ceará has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

Bahia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ceará than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	33.3%	16.7%

Ceará - Bahia Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Ceará will win (votes: 3 - 50%). Bahia will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Ceará (votes: 3 - 50%). Bahia (votes: 3 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH 0 - Ceará (1.88) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Ceará (votes: 4 - 50%). Bahia (votes: 4 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
94. Bruno Ferreira (G) 2. Ramos R. 3. Marllon (C) 23. Willian Machado 30. Nicolas 88. Fernando Sobral 20. Diego 27. Galeano A. 97. Lourenco 11. Aylon 17. Paulo Baya	96. Ronaldo Strada (G) 13. Arias S. 3. Gabriel Xavier 21. Ramos S. 46. Luciano Juba 26. Nicolas Acevedo 6. Jean Lucas 15. Michel Araujo 10. Everton Ribeiro (C) 23. Sanabria M. 12. Willian Jose
Substitutes
33. Eder 77. Fernandinho 15. Gabriel Lacerda 71. Gabriel Silva 80. Guilherme Luiz 31. Lucas Lima 99. Lucca 8. Matheus Araujo 7. Pedro Henrique 1. Richard (G) 29. Vina 25. Vinicius Zanocelo	8. Cauly 1. Danilo Fernandes (G) 83. Fred Lippert 2. Gilberto 25. Iago Borduchi 37. Kayky 44. Luiz Gustavo 5. Rezende 11. Rodrigo 77. Tiago 70. Vitinho 66. Ze Guilherme
Coaches
Leo Conde	Mucke R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
45+3', Lourenco (Pen),
45+3', 1 - 0, Lourenco ⚽,
45+6', Fernando Sobral 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Michel Araujo ↓, Kayky ↑,
56', 1 - 1, Willian Jose ⚽,
59', Aylon 🟨,
63', Lourenco ↓, Vina ↑,
63', Aylon ↓, Pedro Henrique ↑,
67', Nicolas Acevedo ↓, Rodrigo ↑,
67', Everton Ribeiro ↓, Rezende ↑,
67', Fernando Sobral ↓, Vinicius Zanocelo ↑,
75', Willian Jose ↓, Tiago ↑,
78', Tiago 🟨,
84', Paulo Baya ↓, Fernandinho ↑,
84', Diego ↓, Lucas Lima ↑,
86', Fernandinho 🟨,
90', Sanabria M. ↓, Iago Borduchi ↑,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 11 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ceará won 0.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Ceará may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Ceará: Fabiano (Yellow Cards) Lucas Mugni (Inactive) Lucca (Inactive) Luiz Otavio (Knee Injury) Matheus Araujo (Inactive) Richardson (Yellow Cards) Rodriguinho (Red Card) Vinicius Zanocelo (Inactive)

There will not play in Bahia: Ademir (Inactive) Caio Alexandre (Hamstring Injury) David Duarte (Yellow Cards) Erick (Hamstring Injury) Erick Pulga (Inactive) Kanu (Muscle Injury) Ruan Pablo (Inactive) Tiago (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Bahia: Sanabria M. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ceará won 6 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 21:24. (average 1.1:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Ceará won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 10:12. (average 1.1:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ceará SC
Brazilian Serie A
14.09.25	Vasco da Gama - Ceará	2:2 ✺
30.08.25	Ceará - Juventude	0:1 ✺
23.08.25	Grêmio - Ceará	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
20.08.25	Bahia - Ceará	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
16.08.25	Ceará - Red Bull Bragantino	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 TLTLW
- EC Bahia
Brazilian Serie A
15.09.25	Bahia - Cruzeiro	1:2 ✺
Copa do Brasil
10.09.25	Fluminense - Bahia	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
06.09.25	Bahia - Confiança	5:0 ✺
03.09.25	Confiança - Bahia	1:4 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
31.08.25	Mirassol - Bahia	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 LLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
20.08.25	Bahia - Ceará	1:0
Brazilian Serie A
21.04.25	Bahia - Ceará	1:0
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
26.03.25	Bahia - Ceará	3:2
06.03.24	Ceará - Bahia	1:2
Brazilian Serie A
27.10.21	Bahia - Ceará	1:1
17.06.21	Ceará - Bahia	1:2
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
08.05.21	Ceará - Bahia	1:2

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