Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 22

Date: 30 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Castelão (Fortaleza)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
China	K-Ball
Ecuador	El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Mexico	Fanatiz
Usa	Fanatiz


	Ceará		Juventude

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.5	5	Watch
	1.65	3.75	5.5
	1.72	3.45	4.95
	1.79	3.59	5.39
	2.11	2.32	6.32	Watch
	1.6	3.6	5.5
	1.81	3.55	4.83	Watch
	1.6	3.9	5.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.75 ↑ (1.59)	3.46 ↓ (3.88)	5.39 ↓ (5.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ceará
54.6%

Draw
27.7%

Juventude
17.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.3%

24.2%

16.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.5%

23.7%

16.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ceará has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

Juventude has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ceará than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ceará, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Juventude than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81.2%	6.2%	12.5%

Ceará - Juventude Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.75 - Juventude (1.84) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Ceará will win (12 of 15 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.76% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Ceará will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Ceará (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Juventude (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
94. Bruno Ferreira (G) 70. Fabiano 44. Marcos Victor 33. Eder 30. Nicolas 26. Richardson (C) 20. Diego 27. Galeano A. 10. Lucas Mugni 11. Aylon 9. Pedro Raul	13. Jandrei (G) 93. Reginaldo 23. Abner 4. Angel W. 22. Marcelo Hermes 95. Caique Goncalves 16. Jadson (C) 7. Gabriel Veron 44. Mandaca 27. Batalla E. 19. Gabriel Taliari
Substitutes
88. Fernando Sobral 15. Gabriel Lacerda 80. Guilherme Luiz 31. Lucas Lima 3. Marllon 8. Matheus Araujo 17. Paulo Baya 7. Pedro Henrique 1. Richard (G) 75. Rodriguinho 29. Vina 25. Vinicius Zanocelo	28. Alan Ruschel 97. Enio 11. Giovanny 8. Giraldo D. 25. Guruceaga G. (G) 32. Igor Formiga 3. Luan Freitas 98. Marlon 17. Matheus Babi 10. Nene 72. Peixoto 99. Rafael Bilu
Coaches
Leo Conde	Thiago Carpini

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
8', Marcelo Hermes 🟨,
36', Caique Goncalves 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
47', Abner ↓, Luan Freitas ↑,
47', Gabriel Taliari ↓, Matheus Babi ↑,
48', Gabriel Veron ↓, Igor Formiga ↑,
56', Lucas Mugni ↓, Pedro Henrique ↑,
68', Aylon ↓, Fernando Sobral ↑,
68', Richardson ↓, Vina ↑,
72', Batalla E. ↓, Enio ↑,
72', Caique Goncalves ↓, Giraldo D. ↑,
80', Matheus Babi 🟨,
83', Nicolas ↓, Lucas Lima ↑,
84', Galeano A. ↓, Rodriguinho ↑,
85', Giraldo D. 🟨,
90+4', 0 - 1, Mandaca ⚽, Reginaldo (A),
90+8', Jandrei 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 10 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ceará won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

In this match, Ceará is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Ceará: Fernandinho (Muscle Injury) Fernando Miguel (Inactive) Willian Machado (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Juventude: Ewerthon (Muscle Injury) Gilberto (Injury) Lucas Fernandes (Muscle Injury) Nata (Inactive) Rodrigo Sam (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Ceará: Luiz Otavio (Knee Injury)

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Ceará won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 10:9. (average 1.1:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Ceará won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:4. (average 2.3:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ceará SC
Brazilian Serie A
23.08.25	Grêmio - Ceará	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
20.08.25	Bahia - Ceará	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
16.08.25	Ceará - Red Bull Bragantino	1:0 ✺
10.08.25	Palmeiras - Ceará	2:1 ✺
03.08.25	Ceará - Flamengo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 TLWLT
- EC Juventude
Brazilian Serie A
24.08.25	Juventude - Botafogo RJ	1:3 ✺
20.08.25	Juventude - Vasco da Gama	2:0 ✺
16.08.25	Vitória Salvador - Juventude	2:2 ✺
11.08.25	Juventude - Corinthians	2:1 ✺
04.08.25	Santos - Juventude	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 LWTWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
12.04.25	Juventude - Ceará	2:1
Brazilian Serie B
25.11.23	Ceará - Juventude	1:3
23.07.23	Juventude - Ceará	1:0
Brazilian Serie A
13.11.22	Ceará - Juventude	4:1
24.07.22	Juventude - Ceará	1:0
23.10.21	Juventude - Ceará	0:0
04.07.21	Ceará - Juventude	2:0

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