Match Info

Serie B - Round 34

Date: 17 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Castelão (Fortaleza) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Goncalves K. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Brazil	16:30	Disney+, ESPN, RedeTV!


	Ceará		Juventude

	1	X	2
	2.82	3.10	2.50	Watch
	2.75	3.00	2.45
	2.70	3.00	2.70	Watch
	2.94	3.10	2.71
	2.97	3.04	2.52	Watch
	2.90	3.05	2.60
	3.01	3.08	2.43	Watch
	2.75	3.00	2.60
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.86 ↑ (2.63)	3.05 ↑ (3)	2.56 ↓ (2.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ceará
32.8%

Draw
30.7%

Juventude
36.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

35.5%

31.1%

33.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.5%

31.1%

33.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ceará has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

Juventude has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ceará than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Juventude than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

Ceará - Juventude Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Richard (G) 18. Julio Cesar 33. Eder 71. Gabriel Rocha 12. Sanchez 25. Vinicius Zanocelo (C) 81. Joao Gabriel 60. Enzo Lodovico 40. Melk 73. Saulo Mineiro 94. Lopez R.	93. Jandrei (G) 34. Rodrigo Sam (C) 4. Messias 47. Marcos Paulo 13. Aderlan 75. Rai Silva 29. Gabriel Pires 16. Diogo Barbosa 11. Fabio Lima 25. Alisson Safira 10. MP
Substitutes
31. Bryan Borges 23. Caique Franca (G) 7. Giovanni Pavani 78. Janderson 44. Kaiky 77. Lenny Lobato 10. Lucas Mugni 99. Lucca 8. Matheus Araujo 16. Rian Santana 26. Richardson 29. Vina	9. Alan Kardec 17. Castro M. 97. Gabriel Pinheiro 70. Juan Christian 5. Luan Martins 72. Lucas Alves 8. Lucas Mineiro 12. Pedro Rocha (G) 2. Rai Ramos 21. Ruan Carneiro (G) 3. Titi 6. Wadson
Coaches
Daniel Paulista	Mauricio Barbieri

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
22', Julio Cesar ↓, Lenny Lobato ↑,
34', Alisson Safira 🟨,
45+1', Eder 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
46', Lopez R. ↓, Vina ↑,
58', Messias 🟨,
68', 0 - 1, Rai Silva (Penalty Awarded),
70', 1 - 1, Saulo Mineiro ⚽, Joao Gabriel (A),
72', Mauricio Barbieri 🟨,
74', Fabio Lima ↓, Lucas Alves ↑,
74', MP ↓, Juan Christian ↑,
78', 1 - 2, Gabriel Pires ⚽, Rai Silva (A),
81', Alisson Safira ↓, Lucas Mineiro ↑,
81', Messias ↓, Gabriel Pinheiro ↑,
82', Enzo Lodovico ↓, Rian Santana ↑,
82', Vinicius Zanocelo ↓, Matheus Araujo ↑,
86', Rai Silva ↓, Alan Kardec ↑,
90+1', Lenny Lobato ↓, Lucca ↑,
90+16', 2 - 2, Saulo Mineiro (Penalty Awarded),
90+16', Saulo Mineiro 🟨,
90+17', Pedro Rocha 🟥,

Preview

A mid-table host welcomes one of the top contenders in an exciting contest (ranked 15th and 3rd in the Promotion - Serie B (Promotion - Playoffs - Final)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ceará won 0.

Both teams enter this match with positive momentum from recent weeks.

Juventude could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 11 head-to-head meetings, Ceará has recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 7 losses, with a goal aggregate of 10:12 (averaging 0.9:1.1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Ceará against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with 9:5 goals (averaging 1.8:1 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Juventude	35	18	10	7	45:23	22	64
16	Ceara	35	11	10	14	37:44	-7	43

Last Results with these Odds

Ceará - the odds 2.63 are the expected chance of winning is 35.51%, but this team recently wins 20% of matches with these odds.

Juventude - the odds 2.8 are the expected chance of winning is 33.36%, but this team recently wins 10% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ceará SC
Brazilian Serie B
12.10.26	Botafogo SP - Ceará	1:0 ✺
08.10.26	Ceará - Criciúma	1:0 ✺
03.10.26	Avaí - Ceará	0:1 ✺
26.09.26	Operário Ferroviario - Ceará	2:2 ✺
18.09.26	Ceará - Grêmio Novorizontino	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.4 LWWTW
- EC Juventude
Brazilian Serie B
11.10.26	Juventude - São Bernardo	2:2 ✺
06.10.26	Ponte Preta - Juventude	0:2 ✺
02.10.26	Juventude - Operário Ferroviario	3:0 ✺
28.09.26	América Mineiro - Juventude	0:1 ✺
19.09.26	Sport Recife - Juventude	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 TWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
28.06.26	Juventude - Ceará	2:0
Brazilian Serie A
30.08.25	Ceará - Juventude	0:1
12.04.25	Juventude - Ceará	2:1
Brazilian Serie B
25.11.23	Ceará - Juventude	1:3
23.07.23	Juventude - Ceará	1:0
Brazilian Serie A
13.11.22	Ceará - Juventude	4:1
24.07.22	Juventude - Ceará	1:0

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