Match Info

Paulista - Round 7

Date: 7 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Do MorumBIS (Sao Paulo)

Referee: Murilo V. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, HBO Max, Sky+, TV Record, Vivo Play, Zapping


	São Paulo		EC Primavera

	1	X	2
	1.44	4.33	7.5	Watch
	1.58	3.9	5.5
	1.45	4.25	6.5	Watch
	1.41	4.5	7.75
	1.44	4.49	6.88	Watch
	1.4	4	7
	1.38	4.15	7.5
	1.41	4.5	7.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.44 ↓ (1.5)	4.27 ↑ (3.85)	7.02 ↑ (6.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

São Paulo
64.8%

Draw
21.9%

EC Primavera
13.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.5%

24%

14.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.8%

23.5%

14.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

São Paulo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

EC Primavera has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for EC Primavera than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

São Paulo - EC Primavera Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Rafael (G) 28. Franco A. 4. Matheus Doria 32. Ferraresi N. 21. Soares C. 8. Marcos Antonio 16. Bobadilla D. 13. Diaz E. 7. Lucas Moura 14. Tapia G. 11. Ferreira	1. Victor Hugo (G) 2. Kevin 3. Afonso 4. Ligger 6. Thales Oleques 5. Junior Caicara (C) 8. Luan Martins 11. Welliton 10. Matheus Anjos 7. Paulo Baya 9. Gabriel Poveda
Substitutes
31. Carlos Coronel (G) 94. Danielzinho 9. Jonathan Calleri 19. Lucas Ramon 45. Lucca Marques 10. Luciano 29. Pablo Maia 46. Pedro Ferreira 35. Sabino 2. Toloi R. 18. Wendell	12. Dheimison (G) 16. Joao Victor 17. Josiel 25. Kauan Cunha 18. Leo Passos 19. Lucas Douglas 23. Luiz Fernando 15. Paulinho 21. Renatinho 14. Renato Vischi 20. Richard Almeyda 13. Samuel Andrade
Coaches
Crespo H.	Rafael Marques

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
12', Luan Martins 🟨,
36', Afonso ↓, Renato Vischi ↑,
40', Luan Martins ↓, Joao Victor ↑,
44', Renato Vischi 🟨,
45+4', Matheus Doria 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Kevin ↓, Lucas Douglas ↑,
46', Matheus Doria ↓, Luciano ↑,
55', 0 - 1, Gabriel Poveda ⚽, Thales Oleques (A),
56', Bobadilla D. ↓, Danielzinho ↑,
56', Tapia G. ↓, Jonathan Calleri ↑,
63', Welliton ↓, Josiel ↑,
63', Paulo Baya ↓, Luiz Fernando ↑,
70', Ferreira ↓, Lucca Marques ↑,
70', Soares C. ↓, Lucas Ramon ↑,
71', 1 - 1, Lucas Moura ⚽, Danielzinho (A),
78', Renato Vischi 🟨,
81', 2 - 1, Jonathan Calleri (Penalty Awarded),
82', Matheus Anjos ↓, Paulinho ↑,
85', Ferraresi N. 🟨,
90+3', Lucas Moura ↓, Pedro Ferreira ↑,
90+5', Luiz Fernando 🟨,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 11 and 10).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Primavera may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, São Paulo is the obvious favorite.

There will not play in São Paulo: Andre Silva (Knee Injury) Ryan Francisco (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Primavera: Yuri Lima (Inactive)

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Last Results with these Odds

São Paulo - the odds 1.5 are the expected chance of winning is 61.54%, but this team recently wins 86% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- São Paulo FC
Brazilian Serie A
04.02.26	Santos - São Paulo	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
31.01.26	São Paulo - Santos	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
28.01.26	São Paulo - Flamengo	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
24.01.26	Palmeiras - São Paulo	3:1 ✺
21.01.26	São Paulo - Portuguesa	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.9 TWWLL
- EC Primavera
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
31.01.26	EC Primavera - Portuguesa	1:2 ✺
25.01.26	Capivariano - EC Primavera	1:2 ✺
22.01.26	Botafogo SP - EC Primavera	1:0 ✺
17.01.26	EC Primavera - Grêmio Novorizontino	3:4 ✺
14.01.26	EC Primavera - Mirassol	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.2 LWLLW

Upcoming Matches