Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 1

Date: 28 January 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Do MorumBIS (Sao Paulo)

Referee: Sampaio W. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Flow Eventos
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 2
Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, NSC TV, Premiere, Sky+, TV Globo, TV Verdes Mares, Vivo Play, Zapping
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Kosovo	Arena Premium 3
Mexico	Azteca Deportes, Fanatiz
North-central-america	Flow Sports 1 Caribbean
Paraguay	Flow Eventos
Portugal	Canal 11
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	Arena Premium 3
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 2, Movistar Plus+
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
United-kingdom	Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	Flow
Usa	Fanatiz
World	TV Globo Internacional


	São Paulo		Flamengo

	1	X	2
	3.8	3	2.15	Watch
	3.7	3.4	1.98
	3.55	3.05	2.18	Watch
	3.87	3.06	2.25
	4.21	3.11	2.05	Watch
	3.6	2.88	2.15
	3.89	3.05	2.19	Watch
	3.8	3	2.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.8 ↑ (3.56)	3.07 ↓ (3.43)	2.14 ↑ (2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

São Paulo
24.9%

Draw
30.9%

Flamengo
44.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.2%

27.2%

46.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28%

25.5%

43.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

São Paulo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

Flamengo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Flamengo than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
7.7%	15.4%	76.9%

São Paulo - Flamengo Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. São Paulo will win (votes: 1 - 7.7%). Flamengo will win (votes: 10 - 76.9%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 15.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Flamengo: 54% – 99.8%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2 - over (votes: 2 - 50%) .

O/U 1.5 - under (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Flamengo (1.47) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Flamengo will win (8 of 8 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Flamengo (votes: 9 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Rafael (G) 42. Maik 5. Robert Arboleda 28. Franco A. 13. Diaz E. 94. Danielzinho 8. Marcos Antonio 16. Bobadilla D. 35. Sabino 9. Jonathan Calleri 10. Luciano	1. Rossi A. (G) 2. Varela G. 3. Leo Ortiz 4. Leo Pereira (C) 26. Alex Sandro 52. Evertton Araujo 5. Pulgar E. 19. Plata G. 15. Carrascal J. 11. Everton 9. Pedro
Substitutes
31. Carlos Coronel (G) 32. Ferraresi N. 11. Ferreira 7. Lucas Moura 45. Lucca Marques 4. Matheus Doria 29. Pablo Maia 46. Pedro Ferreira 21. Soares C. 14. Tapia G. 2. Toloi R. 18. Wendell	6. Ayrton Lucas 27. Bruno Henrique 51. Daniel Sales 42. da Silva Ventura A. (G) 10. de Arrascaeta G. 81. Douglas Telles 22. Emerson Royal 47. Guilherme Gomes 21. Jorginho 56. Pablo Lucio 16. Samuel Lino 44. Vitao
Coaches
Crespo H.	Filipe Luis

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 1)
54', 0 - 1, Plata G. ⚽, Pedro (A),
56', Evertton Araujo ↓, Jorginho ↑,
56', Pedro ↓, de Arrascaeta G. ↑,
61', 1 - 1, Luciano ⚽, Diaz E. (A),
63', Carrascal J. ↓, Bruno Henrique ↑,
63', Everton ↓, Samuel Lino ↑,
71', 2 - 1, Danielzinho ⚽,
80', Maik ↓, Soares C. ↑,
86', Luciano ↓, Lucas Moura ↑,
86', Danielzinho ↓, Pablo Maia ↑,
90+1', Jonathan Calleri ↓, Tapia G. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 1.

Both teams are currently in poor form.

Flamengo may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Flamengo is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in São Paulo: Andre Silva (Knee Injury) Lucas Moura (Inactive) Ryan Francisco (Knee Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 7 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 22:29. (average 1.1:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, São Paulo won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:13. (average 1.1:1.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Flamengo RJ	29	18	7	4	57:25	32	61
9	Sao Paulo	30	11	6	13	35:35	0	39

Last Results with these Odds

Flamengo - the odds 2 are the expected chance of winning is 46.67%, but this team recently wins 30% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- São Paulo FC
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
24.01.26	Palmeiras - São Paulo	3:1 ✺
21.01.26	São Paulo - Portuguesa	2:3 ✺
18.01.26	Corinthians - São Paulo	1:1 ✺
15.01.26	São Paulo - São Bernardo	1:0 ✺
11.01.26	Mirassol - São Paulo	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 LLTWL
- Flamengo RJ
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
25.01.26	Fluminense - Flamengo	2:1 ✺
21.01.26	Flamengo - Vasco da Gama	1:0 ✺
17.01.26	Volta Redonda - Flamengo	3:0 ✺
14.01.26	Bangu - Flamengo	2:1 ✺
11.01.26	Flamengo - Portuguesa RJ	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LWLLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
05.11.25	São Paulo - Flamengo	2:2
12.07.25	Flamengo - São Paulo	2:0
Club Friendly
19.01.25	São Paulo - Flamengo	0:0
Brazilian Serie A
03.08.24	São Paulo - Flamengo	1:0
17.04.24	Flamengo - São Paulo	2:1
06.12.23	São Paulo - Flamengo	1:0
Copa do Brasil
24.09.23	São Paulo - Flamengo	1:1

Upcoming Matches