Match Info

Paulista - Round 5

Date: 25 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Arena Capivari (Capivari)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	HBO Max


	Capivariano		EC Primavera

	1	X	2
	2.15	3	3.75	Watch
	2.2	3	3.35
	2.25	3	3.69
	2.18	3.12	3.51	Watch
	2.2	2.8	3.25
	2.18	3.04	3.79	Watch
	2.2	3	3.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.19 ↓ (2.25)	2.99 ↑ (2.98)	3.57 ↑ (3.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Capivariano
42.6%

Draw
31.2%

EC Primavera
26.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.8%

30.7%

28.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Capivariano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

EC Primavera has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Capivariano - EC Primavera Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Capivariano (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Guilherme Nogueira (G) 2. Diogo Mateus 3. Lucas Dias 4. Wendel Lomar 6. Leonan Santos 8. Octavio 5. Bruno Silva (C) 7. Thiago Moraes 10. Cassio Gabriel 11. Felipe Azevedo 9. Rodolfo	1. Victor Hugo (G) 2. Kevin 3. Afonso 4. Ligger 6. Thales Oleques 5. Junior Caicara (C) 8. Luan Martins 11. Welliton 10. Matheus Anjos 7. Lucas Douglas 9. Gabriel Poveda
Substitutes
17. Baianinho 16. Balao 18. Carlos Eduardo 13. Lailton Canabrava 14. Marcos Moser 19. Matheus Guilherme 21. Mike 20. Ravanelli 24. Tarcisio 1. Tiago Santos (G) 15. Vinicius Guedes 22. Vinicius Popo	12. Dheimison (G) 13. Gabriel Tobias 16. Joao Victor 18. Josiel 25. Kauan Cunha 19. Leo Passos 23. Luiz Fernando 15. Paulinho 21. Renatinho 14. Renato Vischi 20. Richard Almeyda 17. Samuel Andrade
Coaches
Sizenando E.	Rafael Marques

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
17', 0 - 1, Welliton ⚽,
35', Welliton 🟨,
45+1', 0 - 2, Afonso ⚽, Junior Caicara (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Diogo Mateus ↓, Baianinho ↑,
46', Bruno Silva ↓, Vinicius Guedes ↑,
55', Kevin ↓, Joao Victor ↑,
62', Baianinho 🟨,
66', 1 - 2, Rodolfo ⚽, Wendel Lomar (A),
68', Leonan Santos ↓, Matheus Guilherme ↑,
73', Luan Martins ↓, Paulinho ↑,
73', Matheus Anjos ↓, Josiel ↑,
82', Gabriel Poveda ↓, Luiz Fernando ↑,
82', Lucas Douglas ↓, Renato Vischi ↑,
82', Cassio Gabriel ↓, Vinicius Popo ↑,
82', Felipe Azevedo ↓, Carlos Eduardo ↑,
90', Victor Hugo 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Paulista (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Capivariano won 2.

Primavera may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Capivariano will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Capivariano: Ricardo Cerqueira (Inactive)

There will not play in Primavera: Paulo Baya (Red Card)

There are questionable in Capivariano: Bastos R. (Injury)

There are questionable in Primavera: Yuri Lima (Inactive)

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Capivariano won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:5. (average 1:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Capivariano won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0. (average 0.3:0).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Capivariano FC
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
21.01.26	EC Noroeste - Capivariano	1:1 ✺
17.01.26	Capivariano - Ponte Preta	2:0 ✺
13.01.26	Capivariano - Portuguesa	1:0 ✺
10.01.26	São Bernardo - Capivariano	4:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A2
05.04.25	EC Primavera - Capivariano	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.6 TWWLW
- EC Primavera
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
22.01.26	Botafogo SP - EC Primavera	1:0 ✺
17.01.26	EC Primavera - Grêmio Novorizontino	3:4 ✺
14.01.26	EC Primavera - Mirassol	3:1 ✺
10.01.26	Guarani - EC Primavera	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa Paulista
11.10.25	Piracicaba - EC Primavera	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.7 LLWTL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A2
05.04.25	EC Primavera - Capivariano	1:2
02.04.25	Capivariano - EC Primavera	0:0
22.02.25	Capivariano - EC Primavera	1:0
Brazilian Copa Paulista
03.08.24	Capivariano - EC Primavera	0:0
30.06.24	EC Primavera - Capivariano	2:1
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A2
18.02.24	EC Primavera - Capivariano	2:2

Capivariano - EC Primavera: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide