Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 25

Date: 29 August 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Do MorumBIS (Sao Paulo)

Referee: Daronco A. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Laola1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 2
Germany	Laola1
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	São Paulo		Red Bull Bragantino

	1	X	2
	2.35	3.25	3.10	Watch
	2.45	3.20	2.95
	2.32	3.20	3.05
	2.61	3.14	3.10
	2.26	3.45	3.17	Watch
	2.55	3.10	3.00
	2.40	3.31	3.22	Watch
	2.46	3.20	2.90
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.43 ↑ (2.1)	3.23 ↑ (3.23)	3.06 ↓ (3.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

São Paulo
39.3%

Draw
29.5%

Red Bull Bragantino
31.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.6%

29%

26.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.9%

28.8%

26.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

São Paulo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that São Paulo's form might have worsened.

Red Bull Bragantino has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for São Paulo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Red Bull Bragantino than the current prediction. (-5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.4%	14.3%	14.3%

São Paulo - Red Bull Bragantino Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. São Paulo will win (votes: 5 - 71.4%). RB Bragantino will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1.5 - RB Bragantino (1.14) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2 - over (1.59) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. RB Bragantino (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Rafael (G) 22. Duarte D. 5. Robert Arboleda 35. Sabino 20. Buta 94. Danielzinho 8. Marcos Antonio 12. Iago Borduchi 37. Artur 10. Luciano (C) 43. Santana G.	18. Tiago Volpi (G) 23. Sant'Anna A. 14. Pedro Henrique (C) 16. Gustavo Marques 29. Juninho Capixaba 7. Eric Ramires 20. Rodriguinho 32. Herrera J. 21. Lucas Barbosa 17. Vinicinho 9. Pitta I.
Substitutes
17. Andre Silva 31. Carlos Coronel (G) 80. Cauly 48. Djhordney 34. dos Santos P. 11. Ferreira 9. Jonathan Calleri 19. Lucas Ramon 54. Luis Osorio 29. Pablo Maia 2. Toloi R. 18. Wendell	4. Alix Vinicius 51. Caue Nascimento 1. Cleiton (G) 5. Fabinho 11. Fernando Santos 6. Gabriel 22. Gustavo Neves 34. Hurtado A. 35. Matheus Fernandes 30. Mosquera H. 2. Rodriguez G. 41. Yuri Alves
Coaches
Dorival Junior	Vagner Mancini

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
14', 1 - 0, Luciano (Penalty Awarded),
45', Sant'Anna A. 🟨,
45+4', 2 - 0, Santana G. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Eric Ramires ↓, Fabinho ↑,
46', Vinicinho ↓, Fernando Santos ↑,
55', Santana G. ↓, Andre Silva ↑,
68', Lucas Barbosa ↓, Mosquera H. ↑,
68', Herrera J. ↓, Gustavo Neves ↑,
71', Luciano ↓, Lucas Ramon ↑,
71', Buta ↓, Pablo Maia ↑,
78', Pitta I. ↓, Yuri Alves ↑,
83', Pedro Henrique 🟨,
84', Andre Silva 🟨,
84', Danielzinho ↓, Djhordney ↑,
84', Artur ↓, Ferreira ↑,
86', Mosquera H. 🟨,
90', 2 - 1, Fernando Santos ⚽, Mosquera H. (A),
90+5', Juninho Capixaba 🟨,
90+6', Jonathan Calleri 🟨,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 13 and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 2.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

São Paulo is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in São Paulo: Lucas Moura (Achilles Tendon Injury) Lucca Marques (Jaw injury) Robert Arboleda (Inactive) Toloi R. (Muscle Injury) Victor Sa (Inactive)

There will not play in RB Bragantino: Davi Gomes (Knee Injury) Fernando Santos (Illness) Vanderlan (Knee Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 6 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 27:27. (average 1.4:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, São Paulo won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 13:9. (average 1.4:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Bragantino	29	10	7	12	34:33	1	37
11	Sao Paulo	29	10	6	13	33:34	-1	36

Last Results with these Odds

Red Bull Bragantino - the odds 3.55 are the expected chance of winning is 26.38%, but this team recently wins 19% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- São Paulo FC
Brazilian Serie A
23.08.26	Chapecoense - São Paulo	1:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
18.08.26	São Paulo - Bolívar	3:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
15.08.26	São Paulo - Coritiba	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
11.08.26	Bolívar - São Paulo	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
08.08.26	Grêmio - São Paulo	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LWTTL
- Red Bull Bragantino
Brazilian Serie A
23.08.26	Red Bull Bragantino - Grêmio	1:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
19.08.26	Atlético Mineiro - Red Bull Bragantino	2:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
15.08.26	Athletico Paranaense - Red Bull Bragantino	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
12.08.26	Red Bull Bragantino - Atlético Mineiro	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
09.08.26	Red Bull Bragantino - Corinthians	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 WTTLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
15.03.26	Red Bull Bragantino - São Paulo	1:2
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
21.02.26	Red Bull Bragantino - São Paulo	1:2
Brazilian Serie A
08.11.25	São Paulo - Red Bull Bragantino	0:1
16.07.25	Red Bull Bragantino - São Paulo	2:2
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
08.02.25	Red Bull Bragantino - São Paulo	1:0
Brazilian Serie A
20.11.24	Red Bull Bragantino - São Paulo	1:1
06.07.24	São Paulo - Red Bull Bragantino	2:0

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