Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 23

Date: 15 August 2026, Saturday

Location: Arena da Baixada (Curitiba)

Referee: Gomes Stefano A. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Laola1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 3
Germany	Laola1, Sportdigital FUSSBALL
North-macedonia	Arena Premium 3
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3
Serbia	Arena Premium 3
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Athletico Paranaense		Red Bull Bragantino

	1	X	2
	2.01	3.25	3.80	Watch
	2.05	3.30	3.80
	1.97	3.20	4.00
	2.07	3.30	4.25
	2.14	3.22	3.7	Watch
	2.05	3.25	4.00
	2.03	3.30	4.08	Watch
	2.02	3.35	4.10
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.04 ↑ (2.04)	3.27 ↓ (3.32)	3.97 ↑ (3.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Athletico Paranaense
46.7%

Draw
29.2%

Red Bull Bragantino
24.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.9%

28.2%

25.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.3%

27.4%

25.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Athletico Paranaense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

Red Bull Bragantino has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletico Paranaense than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Red Bull Bragantino than the current prediction. (+1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	20%	0%

Athletico Paranaense - Red Bull Bragantino Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Athletico PR (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (1.64) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Athletico Paranaense will win (12 of 15 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.76% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Santos (C) 29. Benavidez G. 33. Aguirre F. 4. Arthur Dias 12. Gilberto 16. Jadson 14. Luiz Gustavo 7. Mendoza S. 21. Leozinho 8. Joao Cruz 9. Viveros K.	18. Tiago Volpi (G) 23. Sant'Anna A. 14. Pedro Henrique 16. Gustavo Marques 29. Juninho Capixaba 35. Matheus Fernandes (C) 6. Gabriel 32. Herrera J. 21. Lucas Barbosa 17. Vinicinho 9. Pitta I.
Substitutes
18. Calderon Vargas K. A. 47. Chiqueti 25. Dantas 53. Dudu Kogitzki 5. Felipinho 2. Gilberto Junior 3. Leo 1. Mycael (G) 27. Portilla J. 70. Renan Peixoto 19. Rivaldo J. 10. Zapelli B.	4. Alix Vinicius 51. Caue Nascimento 1. Cleiton (G) 3. Eduardo Santos 8. Eduardo Sasha 7. Eric Ramires 5. Fabinho 22. Gustavo Neves 34. Hurtado A. 2. Rodriguez G. 15. Sosa I. 41. Yuri Alves
Coaches
Hellmann O.	Vagner Mancini

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
61', Leozinho ↓, Calderon Vargas K. A. ↑,
67', 0 - 1, Pedro Henrique ⚽, Sant'Anna A. (A),
75', 1 - 1, Calderon Vargas K. A. ⚽, Viveros K. (A),
76', Herrera J. ↓, Eduardo Sasha ↑,
76', Gabriel ↓, Fabinho ↑,
76', Matheus Fernandes ↓, Eric Ramires ↑,
77', Joao Cruz ↓, Dudu Kogitzki ↑,
78', Eduardo Sasha 🟨,
88', Vinicinho ↓, Yuri Alves ↑,
90', Dudu Kogitzki ↓, Zapelli B. ↑,
90+1', Gilberto ↓, Rivaldo J. ↑,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: ) and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Athletico PR won 2.

Athletico PR is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

RB Bragantino has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Athletico PR may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, RB Bragantino has had a series of home games.

In this match, Athletico PR is the team to beat.

There will not play in Athletico PR: Claudinho (Muscle Injury) Esquivel L. (Ankle Injury) Portilla J. (Injury) Teran C. (Injury)

There will not play in RB Bragantino: Bruninho (Muscle Injury) Davi Gomes (Knee Injury) Fabricio (Ankle Injury) Vanderlan (Knee Injury)

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Athletico PR won 6 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 23:22. (average 1.4:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Athletico PR won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 12:8. (average 1.5:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Athletico-PR	29	14	8	7	45:34	11	50
10	Bragantino	29	10	7	12	34:33	1	37

Last Results with these Odds

Athletico Paranaense - the odds 2.04 are the expected chance of winning is 45.94%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Athletico Paranaense
Brazilian Serie A
09.08.26	Santos - Athletico Paranaense	0:2 ✺
Copa do Brasil
06.08.26	Vitória Salvador - Athletico Paranaense	4:0 ✺
03.08.26	Athletico Paranaense - Vitória Salvador	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
30.07.26	Corinthians - Athletico Paranaense	0:0 ✺
25.07.26	Athletico Paranaense - Internacional RS	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13 WLWTW
- Red Bull Bragantino
Copa Sudamericana
12.08.26	Red Bull Bragantino - Atlético Mineiro	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
09.08.26	Red Bull Bragantino - Corinthians	0:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
29.07.26	Red Bull Bragantino - Sporting Cristal	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
26.07.26	Red Bull Bragantino - Coritiba	0:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
22.07.26	Sporting Cristal - Red Bull Bragantino	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 LLWTT

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
11.07.26	Red Bull Bragantino - Athletico Paranaense	2:1
Brazilian Serie A
25.02.26	Red Bull Bragantino - Athletico Paranaense	1:1
05.12.24	Athletico Paranaense - Red Bull Bragantino	1:2
Copa do Brasil
07.08.24	Red Bull Bragantino - Athletico Paranaense	2:3
31.07.24	Athletico Paranaense - Red Bull Bragantino	2:0
Brazilian Serie A
21.07.24	Red Bull Bragantino - Athletico Paranaense	1:0
08.10.23	Athletico Paranaense - Red Bull Bragantino	1:1

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