Match Info

Premier League - Round 32

Date: 27 April 2025, Sunday

Location: ASCO Arena (Baku)

Referee: Ahmadov R. (Aze)

Where to Watch on TV:


Azerbaijan	CBC Sport


	Səbail		Araz Naxçıvan

	1	X	2
	3.9	3.2	1.83
	3.5	3.05	2.06	Watch
	4.07	3.15	2.04
	3.77	3.15	1.98
	4.2	3	1.85
	3.55	3.13	2.01	Watch
	3.5	3.05	2.06
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.78 ↓ (3.85)	3.1 ↓ (3.39)	1.98 ↑ (1.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Səbail
24.2%

Draw
29.5%

Araz Naxçıvan
46.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.9%

27.1%

49%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.9%

27%

49.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Səbail has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

Araz Naxçıvan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Səbail than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Araz Naxçıvan than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

Səbail - Araz Naxçıvan Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Mustabazada A. (G) 11. Abdullazada R. 14. Allouch S. 20. Celik M. 10. Gomis D. (C) 3. Lytvyn D. 97. Mammadov O. 96. Muradov I. 4. Nikolic M. 99. Nshuti I. 83. Quliyev N.	12. Avram C. (G) 34. Abbasov U. (C) 2. Alxasov 10. Benny 8. Carlos Jatoba 4. Igor Ribeiro 7. Isgandarov U. 17. Paro I. 5. Qarayev Q. 16. Ramon Machado 97. Santos F.
Substitutes
67. Abasov R. 22. Abbasov M. 19. Abdullayev S. 18. Ahmadov S. 44. Bilali A. 7. Maddi 25. Mammadzada N. (G) 91. Mirsultanov T. 77. Nabiyev F. 74. Nabiyev Y. 16. Rustamov E. 5. Sofir G.	6. Abdullayev V. 71. Agalarov S. 94. Ahmadli T. (G) 26. Buludov O. 3. Hasanalizada B. 14. Kuzmanovic M. 22. Mustafayev E. 11. Qurbanov B. 23. Rodrigues N. 20. Valizada T.
Coaches
Mammadov E.	Bakshiev E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
30', 0 - 1, Isgandarov U. ⚽, Benny (A),
33', Lytvyn D. 🟨,
43', Abbasov U. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Abbasov U. ↓, Buludov O. ↑,
59', Allouch S. 🟨,
71', Isgandarov U. ↓, Abdullayev V. ↑,
71', Santos F. ↓, Rodrigues N. ↑,
73', Nshuti I. ↓, Abbasov M. ↑,
73', Mammadov O. ↓, Sofir G. ↑,
76', 1 - 1, Nikolic M. ⚽,
81', Ramon Machado ↓, Kuzmanovic M. ↑,
83', Igor Ribeiro 🟨,
84', Nikolic M. 🟨,
88', Gomis D. ↓, Nabiyev F. ↑,
90', Muradov I. 🟨,
90', 🟨,
90+3', Abdullazada R. ↓, Nabiyev Y. ↑,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Səbail won 1.

Səbail is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Araz Naxçıvan is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Səbail could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Araz Naxçıvan is a favorite.

Last 7 head-to-head matches Səbail won 2 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 8:8 (average 1.1:1.1).

Including matches at home between the teams Səbail won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3:4 (average 1:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Səbail FK
Azerbaijan Premier League
19.04.25	Sabah - Səbail	3:2 ✺
11.04.25	Səbail - Qarabağ Agdam	1:4 ✺
05.04.25	Səbail - Turan Tovuz	0:0 ✺
30.03.25	Kapaz - Səbail	1:1 ✺
16.03.25	Səbail - Neftchi Baku	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 LLTTL
- Araz Naxçıvan PFK
Azerbaijan Cup
23.04.25	Qarabağ Agdam - Araz Naxçıvan	3:0 ✺
Azerbaijan Premier League
18.04.25	Araz Naxçıvan - Turan Tovuz	1:1 ✺
13.04.25	Kapaz - Araz Naxçıvan	0:0 ✺
07.04.25	Araz Naxçıvan - Sumgayit	2:0 ✺
Azerbaijan Cup
02.04.25	Araz Naxçıvan - Qarabağ Agdam	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.4 LTTWW

Latest Head to Head

Azerbaijan Premier League
22.02.25	Araz Naxçıvan - Səbail	0:0
07.12.24	Səbail - Araz Naxçıvan	0:2
27.09.24	Araz Naxçıvan - Səbail	3:2
21.04.24	Araz Naxçıvan - Səbail	0:2
17.02.24	Səbail - Araz Naxçıvan	2:2
02.12.23	Araz Naxçıvan - Səbail	1:1
24.09.23	Səbail - Araz Naxçıvan	1:0

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