Match Info

Premier League - Round 29

Date: 5 April 2025, Saturday

Location: ASCO Arena (Baku)

Where to Watch on TV:


Azerbaijan	CBC Sport


	Səbail		Turan Tovuz

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3.2	2.95	2.15
	2.9	2.95	2.4
	2.89	2.99	2.46	Watch
	2.98	2.81	2.65	Watch
	2.9	2.95	2.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.97 ↑ (2.94)	2.93 ↓ (3.08)	2.41 ↑ (2.31)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Səbail
30.8%

Draw
31.3%

Turan Tovuz
38%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31%

29.5%

39.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33%

27.7%

37%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Səbail has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

Turan Tovuz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Səbail than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Turan Tovuz than the current prediction. (-1%)

Səbail - Turan Tovuz Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Mustabazada A. (G) 11. Abdullazada R. 20. Celik M. 3. Lytvyn D. 7. Maddi 96. Muradov I. 77. Nabiyev F. 74. Nabiyev Y. (C) 4. Nikolic M. 99. Nshuti I. 5. Sofir G.	41. Samok S. (G) 44. Ahmadov R. 11. Guseynov A. 15. Hackman E. (C) 32. Hurtado H. 40. Kauan 17. Sadykhov R. 23. Serrano A. 21. Souza Alex 13. Yusifli F. 7. Zulfugarli I.
Substitutes
22. Abbasov M. 19. Abdullayev S. 18. Ahmadov S. 44. Bilali A. 10. Gomis D. 97. Mammadov O. 25. Mammadzada N. (G) 1. Quliyev H. (G) 83. Quliyev N. 16. Rustamov E. 88. Shiraliyev H.	19. Aliyev O. 30. Alizade M. 8. Bayramli T. 6. Ghaderi A. 71. Haciyev M. (G) 90. Jo Batista 1. Konovalov I. (G) 29. Krachkovskii A. 10. Nacafov K. 39. Quliyev S. 77. Rzayev V. 33. Turabov E.
Coaches
Mammadov E.	Berdyev K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
20', Ahmadov R. ↓, Rzayev V. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
71', 🟨,
72', Guseynov A. ↓, Aliyev O. ↑,
75', Nshuti I. ↓, Abbasov M. ↑,
76', Hurtado H. 🟨,
90+2', Sofir G. ↓, Quliyev N. ↑,
90+2', Abdullazada R. ↓, Abdullayev S. ↑,
90+4', Celik M. 🟨,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Səbail won 0.

Səbail has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Turan is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Səbail could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Turan will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 11 head-to-head matches Səbail won 2 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 14:15 (average 1.3:1.4).

Including matches at home between the teams Səbail won 1 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 5:5 (average 1:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Səbail FK
Azerbaijan Premier League
30.03.25	Kapaz - Səbail	1:1 ✺
16.03.25	Səbail - Neftchi Baku	1:2 ✺
09.03.25	Zira - Səbail	1:0 ✺
03.03.25	Səbail - Shamakhi	0:2 ✺
Azerbaijan Cup
27.02.25	Qarabağ Agdam - Səbail	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 TLLLL
- Turan Tovuz
Azerbaijan Premier League
28.03.25	Turan Tovuz - Qarabağ Agdam	1:4 ✺
16.03.25	Turan Tovuz - Sumgayit	1:2 ✺
10.03.25	Neftchi Baku - Turan Tovuz	1:1 ✺
04.03.25	Turan Tovuz - Zira	0:2 ✺
23.02.25	Shamakhi - Turan Tovuz	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Azerbaijan Premier League
01.02.25	Turan Tovuz - Səbail	1:1
09.11.24	Səbail - Turan Tovuz	1:1
30.08.24	Turan Tovuz - Səbail	1:0
30.03.24	Səbail - Turan Tovuz	1:1
26.01.24	Turan Tovuz - Səbail	3:1
03.11.23	Səbail - Turan Tovuz	2:1
26.08.23	Turan Tovuz - Səbail	1:3

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