Match Info

AZERBAIJAN: Premier League - Round 27

Date: 16 March 2025, Sunday

Location: ASCO Arena (Baku)

Referee: Masiyev E. (Aze)

Where to Watch on TV:


Azerbaijan	CBC Sport


	Səbail		Neftchi Baku

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3.9	3.1	1.83
	3.85	3.15	1.9	Watch
	4.32	3.17	1.85	Watch
	4.2	3	1.85
	4.18	3.24	1.92
	3.85	3.15	1.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.05 ↓ (4.87)	3.14 ↓ (3.25)	1.88 ↑ (1.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Səbail
22.5%

Draw
29%

Neftchi Baku
48.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

18.6%

27.9%

53.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18.2%

27.3%

54.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Səbail has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

Neftchi Baku has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Neftchi Baku might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Səbail than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Neftchi Baku than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Neftchi Baku could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Səbail - Neftchi Baku Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Mustabazada A. (G) 22. Abbasov M. 11. Abdullazada R. (C) 18. Ahmadov S. 20. Celik M. 10. Gomis D. 3. Lytvyn D. 96. Muradov I. 77. Nabiyev F. 4. Nikolic M. 5. Sofir G.	93. Cafarov R. (C) 11. Alex Fernandes 4. Camalov E. 99. Koffi E. 14. Kuc E. 18. Ohori R. 10. Ozobic F. 19. Salahly A. 91. Salyanskiy A. 24. Seck M. 44. Yuri Matias
Substitutes
19. Abdullayev S. 44. Bilali A. 7. Maddi 97. Mammadov O. 25. Mammadzada N. (G) 74. Nabiyev Y. 99. Nshuti I. 1. Quliyev H. (G) 83. Quliyev N. 16. Rustamov E. 88. Shiraliyev H.	1. Balayev E. (G) 77. Bogomolskiy E. 20. Conteh A. 22. Darboe D. 17. Haciyev R. 47. Mammadov M. 6. Raphael Guzzo 13. Safarov E. 9. Sambou B. 30. Samigullin R. (G) 90. Sheydayev R.
Coaches
Huseynov C.	Abasov S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
17', 0 - 1, Ozobic F. ⚽,
29', 0 - 2, Camalov E. ⚽,
38', Abdullazada R. 🟨,
43', 1 - 2, Abdullazada R. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Alex Fernandes ↓, Safarov E. ↑,
57', Ozobic F. ↓, Mammadov M. ↑,
57', Abbasov M. ↓, Nshuti I. ↑,
58', Gomis D. ↓, Maddi ↑,
68', Muradov I. 🟨,
70', Muradov I. ↓, Quliyev N. ↑,
72', Salyanskiy A. ↓, Sambou B. ↑,
80', Nabiyev F. ↓, Mammadov O. ↑,
80', Ahmadov S. ↓, Rustamov E. ↑,
85', Ohori R. ↓, Conteh A. ↑,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Səbail won 0.

Səbail is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Neftchi is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Recently Neftchi have a series of home games.

In this match Neftchi is a favorite.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Səbail won 0 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 15 matches and goals 10:45 (average 0.5:2.3).

Including matches at home between the teams Səbail won 0 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 5:22 (average 0.5:2.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Səbail FK
Azerbaijan Premier League
09.03.25	Zira - Səbail	1:0 ✺
03.03.25	Səbail - Shamakhi	0:2 ✺
Azerbaijan Cup
27.02.25	Qarabağ Agdam - Səbail	3:1 ✺
Azerbaijan Premier League
22.02.25	Araz Naxçıvan - Səbail	0:0 ✺
17.02.25	Səbail - Sabah	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 LLLTT
- Neftchi Baku
Azerbaijan Premier League
10.03.25	Neftchi Baku - Turan Tovuz	1:1 ✺
05.03.25	Kapaz - Neftchi Baku	1:0 ✺
Azerbaijan Cup
28.02.25	Neftchi Baku - Kapaz	1:0 ✺
Azerbaijan Premier League
21.02.25	Neftchi Baku - Sumgayit	1:0 ✺
16.02.25	Neftchi Baku - Qarabağ Agdam	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 TLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Azerbaijan Premier League
19.10.24	Neftchi Baku - Səbail	3:1
10.08.24	Səbail - Neftchi Baku	1:1
18.05.24	Səbail - Neftchi Baku	0:3
15.03.24	Neftchi Baku - Səbail	3:0
20.10.23	Səbail - Neftchi Baku	2:4
14.08.23	Neftchi Baku - Səbail	1:1
22.04.23	Səbail - Neftchi Baku	1:1

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