Match Info

I Liqa - Round 19

Date: 18 March 2026, Wednesday

Location: ASCO Arena (Baku)


	Səbail		MOIK Baku

	1	X	2
	1.62	3.55	4.55
	1.63	3.58	4.73
	1.97	3.23	3.62	Watch
	1.67	3.4	4.4
	1.63	3.5	4.94
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.7 ↑ (1.49)	3.45 ↓ (3.95)	4.45 ↓ (5.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Səbail
53.3%

Draw
26.3%

MOIK Baku
20.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.4%

22.8%

16.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.7%

22.3%

16.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Səbail has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Səbail's form might have worsened.

MOIK Baku has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Səbail than the current prediction. (+8.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Səbail, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for MOIK Baku than the current prediction. (-4%)

Səbail - MOIK Baku Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
19', 0 - 1, Faracov S. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
64', 1 - 1, Voronsov R. ⚽,
69', 1 - 2, Mammadzada M. ⚽,
86', 2 - 2, Safarov Q. ⚽,

Preview

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

In this match, Səbail is the team to beat.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Səbail won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:1. (average 1.7:0.3).

Including home match between the teams, Səbail won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Sabail	3	2	1	0	4:2	2	7
5	MOIK Baku	3	1	1	1	3:2	1	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Səbail FK
Azerbaijan First Division
12.03.26	Mingachevir - Səbail	0:1 ✺
06.03.26	Cəbrayıl - Səbail	1:4 ✺
24.02.26	Səbail - Baku Sporting	0:0 ✺
18.02.26	MOIK Baku - Səbail	1:0 ✺
12.02.26	Səbail - Şəfa	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 WWTLT
- MOIK Baku
Azerbaijan First Division
12.03.26	Shahdag Qusar - MOIK Baku	1:1 ✺
06.03.26	MOIK Baku - Difai Ağsu	2:1 ✺
25.02.26	Mingachevir - MOIK Baku	2:0 ✺
18.02.26	MOIK Baku - Səbail	1:0 ✺
12.02.26	Baku Sporting - MOIK Baku	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 TWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Azerbaijan First Division
18.02.26	MOIK Baku - Səbail	1:0
05.11.25	Səbail - MOIK Baku	1:0
Azerbaijan Cup
22.11.22	MOIK Baku - Səbail	0:4

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