Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 4

Date: 21 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio El Prado (Talavera de la Reina)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Talavera de la Reina		Barakaldo

	1	X	2
	2.55	2.9	2.63
	2.58	3.05	2.62
	2.52	3.28	2.75
	1.42	4.34	7.02	Watch
	2.56	3.08	2.68
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.33 ↑ (2.33)	3.33 ↑ (2.94)	3.54 ↑ (3.03)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Talavera de la Reina
42.5%

Draw
29.7%

Barakaldo
27.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.1%

30.9%

30%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.4%

31.5%

30.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Talavera de la Reina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

Barakaldo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Talavera de la Reina than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Barakaldo than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

Talavera de la Reina - Barakaldo Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0, 1st Half - Barakaldo (1.89) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Barakaldo (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gonzalez J. (G) 22. Rodriguez F. 5. Molina S. 4. Lopez A. 3. Roig A. 16. Navarro I. 8. Sanchez L. 6. Pitu 7. Di Renzo G. 9. Moreno M. 11. Gallardo Rodriguez E.	1. Ispizua I. (G) 2. de Jesus B. 18. Arana M. 24. Ropero I. 16. Lopez O. 5. Molina E. 8. Huidobro J. 21. San Bartolome V. 20. Mandiang S. 19. Galarza A. 11. Perez E.
Substitutes
15. Arroyo N. 18. Capo P. 2. Cuenca D. 23. Farrando M. 19. Gomez V. 30. Ihab 14. Molina A. 27. Moussa R. 17. Ouacharaf B. 13. Rocafort R. (G)	13. Campos G. (G) 17. de Leon J. 4. Dufur U. 15. Jimenez I. 14. Munoz I. 6. Naveira U. 7. Pedernales I. 10. Sabin 22. Torra M. 9. Valino A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
3', Ropero I. 🟨,
9', 1 - 0, Di Renzo G. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Galarza A. ↓, Valino A. ↑,
46', Ropero I. ↓, Dufur U. ↑,
46', 1 - 1, Lopez O. ⚽,
49', Lopez O. 🟥,
53', Arana M. 🟨,
54', Mandiang S. ↓, Pedernales I. ↑,
60', Moreno M. ↓, Arroyo N. ↑,
62', San Bartolome V. ↓, Sabin ↑,
74', Molina E. ↓, Naveira U. ↑,
75', Gallardo Rodriguez E. ↓, Gomez V. ↑,
75', Rodriguez F. ↓, Ouacharaf B. ↑,
87', Roig A. ↓, Cuenca D. ↑,
87', Pitu ↓, Molina A. ↑,

Preview

Talavera is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Barakaldo has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Talavera may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Barakaldo has had a series of home games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Talavera won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 1:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, Talavera won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CF Talavera de la Reina
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
14.09.25	Ourense CF - Talavera de la Reina	1:2 ✺
07.09.25	Talavera de la Reina - Athletic Bilbao B	1:1 ✺
31.08.25	Ferrol - Talavera de la Reina	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
22.08.25	Jaraíz - Talavera de la Reina	1:2 ✺
16.08.25	Talavera de la Reina - Linares Deportivo	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 WTLWW
- Barakaldo CF
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
12.09.25	Barakaldo - Arenas Club de Getxo	2:1 ✺
06.09.25	Barakaldo - Zamora	1:1 ✺
30.08.25	Mérida AD - Barakaldo	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
16.08.25	Barakaldo - Real Unión de Irun	3:3 ✺
09.08.25	Barakaldo - Arenas Club de Getxo	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 WTLTT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 2
13.03.16	Barakaldo - Talavera de la Reina	1:0
25.10.15	Talavera de la Reina - Barakaldo	2:2

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