Match Info

USL Cup

Date: 25 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Al Lang Stadium (St. Petersburg, FL)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Tampa Bay Rowdies		Sarasota Paradise

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.35	4.25	7.4
	1.35	4.75	6.59
	1.13	8.13	14.33	Watch
	1.36	4.2	6.5
	1.4	4.4	6.24
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.32 ↓ (1.44)	5.15 ↑ (4.5)	8.21 ↑ (6.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 7.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tampa Bay Rowdies
70.6%

Draw
18.1%

Sarasota Paradise
11.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.6%

20.7%

14.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.4%

19.8%

14.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tampa Bay Rowdies has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Tampa Bay Rowdies's performance.

Sarasota Paradise has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tampa Bay Rowdies than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sarasota Paradise than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

Tampa Bay Rowdies - Sarasota Paradise Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Waite J. (G) 36. Rodriguez A. 3. Schaefer B. 62. Dossantos N. 20. Ostrem C. 4. Hilton L. (C) 14. Henderlong K. 13. Perez L. 17. Mattheus 7. Conway E. 8. Pedro Becker	1. Sutton A. (C) 14. Pettersen J. 4. Watters D. 5. Sogaard A. 36. Rosa A. 8. Walker A. 3. Valentine R. 2. Burlew R. 7. Bryant E. 16. Rodriguez A. 19. McLaughlin G.
Substitutes
26. Acoff D. 10. Cicerone R. 16. Micaletto M. 9. Myers M. 24. Pack A. (G) 23. Schneider M. 37. Tita J. 11. Vivi Quesada G.	22. Backstrand H. 17. Bolanos J. 50. Brulinski D. 11. Karani S. 51. Kend A. 13. Lapkes S. (G) 27. O'Dwyer C. 46. Roed S. 6. Stretch C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
22', Pedro Becker 🟨,
26', Pettersen J. 🟨,
31', 1 - 0, Henderlong K. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Rodriguez A. ↓, Bolanos J. ↑,
46', Bryant E. ↓, Roed S. ↑,
53', Mattheus 🟨,
58', 2 - 0, Henderlong K. ⚽,
62', Conway E. ↓, Cicerone R. ↑,
62', Pedro Becker ↓, Schneider M. ↑,
62', Mattheus ↓, Myers M. ↑,
62', Rosa A. ↓, Backstrand H. ↑,
70', Burlew R. ↓, Karani S. ↑,
70', Henderlong K. ↓, Micaletto M. ↑,
77', Rodriguez A. ↓, Acoff D. ↑,
80', McLaughlin G. ↓, O'Dwyer C. ↑,
85', Hilton L. 🟨,
86', Sogaard A. 🟨,

Preview

Tampa Bay is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Sarasota Paradise has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Tampa Bay may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Tampa Bay is the undisputed favorite.

We predict that Tampa Bay will win today's game, with odds of 1.44.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tampa Bay Rowdies
USL Championship
18.04.26	Charleston Battery - Tampa Bay Rowdies	1:1 ✺
11.04.26	Tampa Bay Rowdies - Oakland Roots	2:2 ✺
04.04.26	Sporting Jacksonville - Tampa Bay Rowdies	0:1 ✺
28.03.26	Tampa Bay Rowdies - Loudoun United	3:1 ✺
21.03.26	Tampa Bay Rowdies - Pittsburgh Riverhounds	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 TTWWW
- Sarasota Paradise
USL League One
22.04.26	Sarasota Paradise - Corpus Christi	2:1 ✺
11.04.26	Naples - Sarasota Paradise	2:0 ✺
08.04.26	Westchester SC - Sarasota Paradise	2:0 ✺
04.04.26	Sarasota Paradise - One Knoxville	1:2 ✺
28.03.26	Sarasota Paradise - Portland Hearts of Pine	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WLLLW

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