Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 18 - Round 14

Date: 6 December 2025, Saturday


	Tarancón		Marchamalo

	1	X	2
	1.55	3.5	5.35
	1.58	3.56	5.29
	1.61	3.6	5.36
	1.57	3.54	5.49
	1.58	3.5	5.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.58 ↑ (1.56)	3.54 ↓ (3.58)	5.4 ↓ (5.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tarancón
57.5%

Draw
25.6%

Marchamalo
16.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58%

25.4%

16.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.9%

24.2%

15.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tarancón has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

Marchamalo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tarancón than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Marchamalo than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

Tarancón - Marchamalo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
30', 0 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
60', 1 - 1, ⚽,
61', 2 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Tercera RFEF ~ Group 18 (Play Offs: ) and 13).

Tarancón is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Marchamalo has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Tarancón is a strong favorite.

We predict that Tarancón will win today's game, with odds of 1.56.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tarancón won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 7:3. (average 1.4:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Tarancón won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:1. (average 1.3:0.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Tarancón
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 18
30.11.25	Azuqueca - Tarancón	1:2 ✺
22.11.25	Tarancón - Villarrubia	0:0 ✺
16.11.25	Sonseca - Tarancón	1:7 ✺
09.11.25	Pedroñeras - Tarancón	1:3 ✺
01.11.25	Tarancón - Calvo Sotelo Puertollano	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WTWWT
- CD Marchamalo
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 18
29.11.25	Marchamalo - Pedroñeras	1:0 ✺
23.11.25	Calvo Sotelo Puertollano - Marchamalo	2:0 ✺
15.11.25	Marchamalo - San Clemente	3:0 ✺
08.11.25	Villacañas - Marchamalo	0:0 ✺
02.11.25	Marchamalo - Illescas	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 WLWTL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 18
22.09.24	Tarancón - Marchamalo	2:1
13.01.24	Tarancón - Marchamalo	0:0
22.01.23	Tarancón - Marchamalo	2:0
28.02.21	Marchamalo - Tarancón	2:1
27.01.19	Marchamalo - Tarancón	0:2

Tarancón - Marchamalo: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide