Match Info

J3 League - Round 11

Date: 3 May 2025, Saturday

Location: Unilever Stadium Shintomi (Miyazaki)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Tegevajaro Miyazaki		Kochi United

	1	X	2
	2.3	3.1	2.7
	2.29	3.25	2.8
	2.44	3.2	2.99
	2.45	3.14	2.95	Watch
	2.3	3	2.8
	2.38	3.06	2.84	Watch
	2.29	3.25	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.35 ↑ (2.2)	3.14 ↓ (3.4)	2.84 ↑ (2.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tegevajaro Miyazaki
38.8%

Draw
29%

Kochi United
32.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.1%

26.6%

32.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.5%

25.7%

31.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tegevajaro Miyazaki has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

Kochi United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tegevajaro Miyazaki than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kochi United than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

Tegevajaro Miyazaki - Kochi United Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
32. Lee Chung-won (G) 24. Matsumoto Y. 33. Kuroki K. 45. Tanaka S. 39. Shimokawa Y. 50. Yasuda K. 34. Kawai T. 20. Ano M. 47. Okumura K. 10. Inoue R. 11. Hashimoto K.	21. Osugi S. (G) 2. Yoshida T. 5. Tanabe Y. 38. Suzuki S. 16. Kozuki S. 88. Kudo M. 19. Mizuno H. 66. Miyoshi R. 10. Sasaki T. 9. Shintani M. 11. Kobayashi K.
Substitutes
40. Ando R. 55. Aoki K. (G) 35. Egawa G. 48. Kihara J. 43. Morita R. 13. Nakano K. 6. Okuma K. 41. Sakai S. 18. Yoshizawa S.	25. Imai N. 17. Ito R. 7. Kanehara A. 1. Kurokawa R. (G) 24. Okazawa H. 20. Sugiyama R. 26. Suto N. 18. Toya T. 6. Uda K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
33', 0 - 1, Shintani M. ⚽,
43', 0 - 2, Kobayashi K. (Pen),
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Kawai T. ↓, Yoshizawa S. ↑,
51', 1 - 2, Hashimoto K. ⚽,
54', Kudo M. 🟨,
56', Shintani M. ↓, Toya T. ↑,
56', Miyoshi R. ↓, Suto N. ↑,
62', Okumura K. 🟨,
71', Inoue R. ↓, Ando R. ↑,
74', Mizuno H. ↓, Kanehara A. ↑,
74', Kobayashi K. ↓, Sugiyama R. ↑,
78', 2 - 2, Kuroki K. ⚽,
79', Tanabe Y. ↓, Imai N. ↑,
83', Ano M. ↓, Nakano K. ↑,
89', 3 - 2, Hashimoto K. ⚽,
90', Shimokawa Y. ↓, Egawa G. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 7 and 10).

Tegevajaro Miyazaki is showing really good form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Kochi United has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tegevajaro Miyazaki
Japan J3 League
20.04.25	Ryūkyū - Tegevajaro Miyazaki	1:1 ✺
12.04.25	Tegevajaro Miyazaki - Gainare Tottori	2:1 ✺
05.04.25	Thespakusatsu Gunma - Tegevajaro Miyazaki	0:0 ✺
30.03.25	Tegevajaro Miyazaki - Kagoshima United	1:1 ✺
23.03.25	Azul Claro Numazu - Tegevajaro Miyazaki	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 TWTTW
- Kochi United
Japan J3 League
20.04.25	Fukushima United - Kochi United	3:4 ✺
13.04.25	Kochi United - Tochigi City	0:5 ✺
05.04.25	Matsumoto Yamaga - Kochi United	0:5 ✺
30.03.25	Kochi United - Ryūkyū	1:1 ✺
23.03.25	Vanraure Hachinohe - Kochi United	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 WLWTL

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