Match Info

J3 League - Round 8

Date: 5 April 2025, Saturday

Location: Sunpro Alwin (Matsumoto)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Matsumoto Yamaga		Kochi United

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.1	3.1
	2.12	3.3	3.05
	2.14	3.51	3.19	Watch
	2.1	3	3.1
	2.26	3.14	3.25	Watch
	2.12	3.3	3.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.13 ↑ (1.82)	3.23 ↓ (3.55)	3.12 ↓ (3.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Matsumoto Yamaga
42.7%

Draw
28.2%

Kochi United
29.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.4%

25.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51%

24.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matsumoto Yamaga has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Matsumoto Yamaga's form might have worsened.

Kochi United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Matsumoto Yamaga than the current prediction. (+8.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Matsumoto Yamaga, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kochi United than the current prediction. (-4.6%)

Matsumoto Yamaga - Kochi United Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ouchi I. (G) 47. Tiago Santana 4. Takahashi S. 19. Sugita H. 15. Yamamoto K. 40. Higuchi D. 13. Ishiyama A. 46. Yasunaga R. 17. Yamamoto R. 10. Kikui Y. (C) 11. Asakawa H.	21. Osugi S. (G) 4. Kobayashi D. (C) 5. Tanabe Y. 38. Suzuki S. 88. Kudo M. 16. Kozuki S. 26. Suto N. 8. Takano Y. 19. Mizuno H. 11. Kobayashi K. 18. Toya T.
Substitutes
49. Homma J. 33. Kim J. H. (G) 29. Lucas Vargas 36. Matsumura G. 41. Murakoshi K. 27. Ninomiya J. 24. Ogawa D. 18. Ohashi H. 22. Saso K.	37. Fukagawa D. 72. Fukumiya K. 7. Kanehara A. 1. Kurokawa R. (G) 66. Miyoshi R. 24. Okazawa H. 10. Sasaki T. 9. Shintani M. 29. Uchida Y.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 5)
9', 0 - 1, Kobayashi K. ⚽, Suto N. (A),
19', 0 - 2, Kudo M. ⚽, Suzuki S. (A),
33', 0 - 3, Kobayashi K. ⚽, Suzuki S. (A),
35', Sugita H. 🟨,
36', 0 - 4, Suto N. ⚽, Suzuki S. (A),
38', 0 - 5, Mizuno H. ⚽, Suto N. (A),
39', Tiago Santana ↓, Lucas Vargas ↑,
39', Higuchi D. ↓, Homma J. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
52', Tanabe Y. ↓, Fukagawa D. ↑,
58', Yasunaga R. ↓, Matsumura G. ↑,
58', Ishiyama A. ↓, Murakoshi K. ↑,
66', Lucas Vargas ↓, Saso K. ↑,
70', Takano Y. ↓, Okazawa H. ↑,
70', Suto N. ↓, Miyoshi R. ↑,
89', Osugi S. 🟨,

Preview

The two neighboring teams will play in the exciting match (ranked 15 and 17).

Two teams are playing changeable.

Matsumoto Yamaga could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Matsumoto Yamaga will have a mini benefit in this match.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matsumoto Yamaga
Japan J3 League
29.03.25	Gifu - Matsumoto Yamaga	1:1 ✺
Japan J League Cup
26.03.25	Matsumoto Yamaga - Sagan Tosu	1:0 ET ✺
Japan J3 League
23.03.25	Matsumoto Yamaga - Sagamihara	2:0 ✺
09.03.25	Tegevajaro Miyazaki - Matsumoto Yamaga	0:0 ✺
01.03.25	Nara Club - Matsumoto Yamaga	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13 TWWTL
- Kochi United
Japan J3 League
30.03.25	Kochi United - Ryūkyū	1:1 ✺
23.03.25	Vanraure Hachinohe - Kochi United	3:2 ✺
Japan J League Cup
20.03.25	Kochi United - Gamba Osaka	1:2 ✺
Japan J3 League
15.03.25	Kochi United - Kagoshima United	2:2 ✺
09.03.25	Zweigen Kanazawa - Kochi United	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 TLLTW

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