Match Info

Eredivisie - Round 9

Date: 19 October 2025, Sunday

Location: BUKO Stadion (Velsen-Zuid)

Referee: Higler D. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, SupeSport ESPN 1
Kenya	Gotv
Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 1, ESPN Extra
Nigeria	SupeSport ESPN 1
South-africa	SupeSport ESPN


	Telstar		Heerenveen

	1	X	2
	2.88	3.4	2.1	Watch
	3.05	3.55	2.28
	3.13	3.7	2.27
	7.35	4.82	1.39	Watch
	3.28	3.69	2.2	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.94 ↑ (2.66)	3.83 ↑ (3.67)	2.05 ↓ (2.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Telstar
25.3%

Draw
26%

Heerenveen
48.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.9%

26%

38.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.8%

26.6%

37.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Telstar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Telstar's form might have worsened.

Heerenveen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Heerenveen's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Telstar than the current prediction. (+11.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Telstar, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Heerenveen than the current prediction. (-11.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Heerenveen, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
19%	38.1%	42.9%

Telstar - Heerenveen Predictions

Users Predictions: 21 users predict this event. Telstar will win (votes: 4 - 19%). Heerenveen will win (votes: 9 - 42.9%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 38.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Heerenveen: 21.7% – 64.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Telstar (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Heerenveen (1.40) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Telstar (votes: 2 - 40%). Heerenveen (votes: 1 - 20%). Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Koeman R. (G) 21. Koswal D. 4. Offerhaus G. 2. Hardeveld J. (C) 11. Noslin T. 16. Mertens D. 17. Rossen N. 39. Ritmeester van de Kamp J. 7. Hetli S. 27. Brouwer P. 30. Tejan K.	22. Klaverboer B. (G) 45. Braude O. 6. van Overeem J. 3. Willemsen M. 19. Zagaritis V. 16. Linday M. 8. Brouwers L. (C) 20. Trenskow J. 10. Meerveld R. 7. Rivera M. 9. Vente D.
Substitutes
6. Bakker D. 13. Bodak T. (G) 19. Hagedoorn S. 10. Hamdaoui M. 15. Lechkar A. 29. Malone D. 5. Nwankwo N. 14. Ogidi Nwankwo N. 28. Oudsten R. 8. Owusu T. 20. Reiziger D. (G) 9. Zonneveld M.	35. Ahmed I. 31. Bakker N. (G) 34. Bouw R. 36. Courtens N. 15. Egbring M. 50. Gurbuz E. 17. Hopland N. 4. Kersten S. 44. Noppert A. (G) 28. Petrov H. 33. Rijssel J. 27. Sejk V.
Coaches
Correia A.	Veldman R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
4', Koswal D. 🟨,
21', 0 - 1, Trenskow J. ⚽, Meerveld R. (A),
42', 0 - 2, Vente D. (Pen),
44', Willemsen M. 🟨,
45', 1 - 2, Hardeveld J. ⚽, Offerhaus G. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
54', 1 - 3, Meerveld R. ⚽, Vente D. (A),
65', Mertens D. ↓, Nwankwo N. ↑,
65', Hetli S. ↓, Zonneveld M. ↑,
65', Tejan K. ↓, Owusu T. ↑,
72', Linday M. 🟨,
79', Rivera M. ↓, Sejk V. ↑,
81', Koswal D. ↓, Hamdaoui M. ↑,
85', 2 - 3, Zonneveld M. ⚽,
86', Brouwer P. ↓, Hagedoorn S. ↑,
86', Meerveld R. ↓, Kersten S. ↑,
90+4', Trenskow J. ↓, Gurbuz E. ↑,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 15 and 12).

Recent performances by Telstar have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Heerenveen is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Heerenveen: Bochniewicz P. (Knee Injury) Hopland N. (Ankle Injury) Smans L. (Knee Injury) van Axel Dongen A. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Telstar: Bakker D. (Inactive) Owusu T. (Inactive)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Telstar won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:4. (average 0.5:2).

Last Results with these Odds

Telstar - the odds 2.66 are the expected chance of winning is 35.86%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Telstar
Dutch Eredivisie
05.10.25	AZ Alkmaar - Telstar	2:1 ✺
28.09.25	Telstar - Go Ahead Eagles	4:2 ✺
20.09.25	Groningen - Telstar	2:0 ✺
14.09.25	Telstar - Fortuna Sittard	1:3 ✺
30.08.25	PSV Eindhoven - Telstar	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 51.8 LWLLW
- SC Heerenveen
Club Friendly
09.10.25	Heerenveen - Zwolle	4:1 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
04.10.25	Heerenveen - Excelsior	2:1 ✺
28.09.25	Utrecht - Heerenveen	2:2 ✺
21.09.25	Heerenveen - NEC Nijmegen	3:2 ✺
13.09.25	Feyenoord - Heerenveen	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 WWTWL

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
11.07.25	Heerenveen - Telstar	1:1
11.07.14	Heerenveen - Telstar	3:0

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