Match Info

Eredivisie - Conference League - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 21 May 2026, Thursday

Location: Stadion Galgenwaard (Utrecht)

Where to Watch on TV:


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World	Onefootball, Triller TV+


	Utrecht		Heerenveen

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.7	3.8	Watch
	1.95	3.7	3.7
	1.93	3.9	3.96
	1.92	3.66	3.85	Watch
	1.91	3.5	3.6
	1.94	3.81	3.81	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.93 (1.93)	3.71 ↓ (4.02)	3.79 ↑ (3.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Utrecht
49.3%

Draw
25.6%

Heerenveen
25.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49%

23.5%

27.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.3%

23.8%

27.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Utrecht has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

Heerenveen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Utrecht than the current prediction. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Heerenveen than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80.8%	19.2%	0%

Utrecht - Heerenveen Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Utrecht (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Heerenveen (1.93) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Utrecht will win (20 of 25 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.32% – 95.68%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Utrecht (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Heerenveen (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Barkas V. (G) 23. Vesterlund N. 3. van der Hoorn M. (C) 44. Eerdhuijzen M. 16. El Karouani S. 27. Engwanda A. 21. Zechiel G. 10. Cathline Y. 20. de Wit D. 11. Karlsson J. 18. Stepanov A.	22. Klaverboer B. (G) 45. Braude O. 4. Kersten S. 3. Willemsen M. 19. Zagaritis V. 16. Linday M. 6. van Overeem J. (C) 20. Trenskow J. 10. Meerveld R. 11. Oyen L. 9. Vente D.
Substitutes
5. Adiele E. 77. Alarcon A. 15. Blake A. 8. Bozdogan C. 25. Brouwer M. (G) 43. El Arguioui R. 33. Gadellaa K. (G) 91. Haller S. 2. Horemans S. 57. Kloosterboer P. 53. Viereck N. 24. Viergever N.	35. Ahmed I. 31. Bakker N. (G) 40. Bonevacia C. 8. Brouwers L. 36. Courtens N. 15. Egbring M. 50. Gurbuz E. 17. Hopland N. 44. Noppert A. (G) 18. Nordas L. 28. Petrov H. 7. Rivera M.
Coaches
Jans R.	Veldman R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
45', Engwanda A. ↓, Horemans S. ↑,
2nd Half (3 - 2)
46', 1 - 0, Stepanov A. ⚽,
49', Linday M. 🟨,
54', 1 - 1, Vente D. ⚽, van Overeem J. (A),
56', 2 - 1, van der Hoorn M. ⚽, El Karouani S. (A),
58', 3 - 1, El Karouani S. ⚽, Vesterlund N. (A),
65', Stepanov A. ↓, Haller S. ↑,
69', Oyen L. ↓, Nordas L. ↑,
77', 3 - 2, Trenskow J. ⚽, Kersten S. (A),
78', Linday M. ↓, Brouwers L. ↑,
80', Eerdhuijzen M. ↓, Viergever N. ↑,
80', Karlsson J. ↓, Blake A. ↑,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Conference League ~ Play Offs: ) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Conference League ~ Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Utrecht won 2.

Utrecht is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Heerenveen has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Utrecht will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Utrecht: Agougil O. (Injury) Alarcon A. (Inactive) Brouwer M. (Inactive) Demircan E. (Inactive) Didden M. (Inactive) Jensen V. (Knee Injury) Rodriguez M. (Knee Injury) van Ommeren J. (Injury)

There will not play in Heerenveen: Smans L. (Knee Injury) van Axel Dongen A. (Thigh Injury)

There are questionable in Heerenveen: Rivera M. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Utrecht won 12 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 34:22. (average 1.7:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Utrecht won 7 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 17:9. (average 1.7:0.9).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Heerenveen	8	2	3	3	11:11	0	9
15	Utrecht	7	1	2	4	11:24	-13	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Utrecht
Dutch Eredivisie
17.05.26	Utrecht - Fortuna Sittard	2:0 ✺
10.05.26	Ajax - Utrecht	1:2 ✺
02.05.26	Utrecht - NAC Breda	2:0 ✺
26.04.26	Excelsior - Utrecht	5:0 ✺
11.04.26	Utrecht - Telstar	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.4 WWWLW
- SC Heerenveen
Dutch Eredivisie
17.05.26	Heerenveen - Ajax	0:0 ✺
11.05.26	NAC Breda - Heerenveen	2:0 ✺
03.05.26	Volendam - Heerenveen	0:2 ✺
25.04.26	Heerenveen - Fortuna Sittard	2:1 ✺
12.04.26	AZ Alkmaar - Heerenveen	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 TLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eredivisie
01.02.26	Heerenveen - Utrecht	1:1
28.09.25	Utrecht - Heerenveen	2:2
30.03.25	Utrecht - Heerenveen	2:0
17.08.24	Heerenveen - Utrecht	1:1
07.04.24	Heerenveen - Utrecht	2:3
20.08.23	Utrecht - Heerenveen	0:2
04.02.23	Utrecht - Heerenveen	1:0

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