Match Info

Liga MX Women - Clausura - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 3 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Universitario (San Nicolás de los Garza)

Referee: Lopez A. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	FOX One


	Tigres UANL		Toluca

	1	X	2
	1.5	4.25	4.85
	1.54	4.34	5.04
	1.57	4.32	5.02	Watch
	1.5	3.9	4.8
	1.48	4.3	5.17	Watch
	1.52	4.5	4.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.52 ↑ (1.41)	4.27 ↑ (3.8)	4.94 ↑ (4.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tigres UANL
60.1%

Draw
21.4%

Toluca
18.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60%

22.2%

17.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.5%

21%

16.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tigres UANL has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

Toluca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tigres UANL than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

Tigres UANL - Toluca Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Santiago A. (G) 14. Delgadillo M. 8. Delgado A. 4. Espinoza G. (C) 10. Hermoso J. 16. Kgatlana T. 6. Lopez J. 20. Mariza 9. Mayor S. 12. Ordonez D. 7. Sanchez M.	12. Martinez V. (G) 14. Blackwood D. 5. Erceg A. 8. Fernandez K. 16. Fernandez L. (C) 11. Guatemala D. 28. Henry A. 17. Jakobsson S. 99. Le Sommer E. 2. Martinez K. 25. Robert F.
Substitutes
2. Colin N. 18. Cruz B. 17. Enciso S. 23. Gonzalez I. (G) 31. Gonzalez M. 21. Izquierdo I. 27. Perisset E. 24. Reyes M. 3. Villalpando M. 15. Watson E.	10. Cuevas B. 23. Diaz B. 13. Lopez V. 1. Meza Acosta A. L. (G) 26. Munoz I. 7. Peraza C. 4. Rodriguez Perez Y. 21. Valadez N. 6. Vazquez S.
Coaches
Martinez P.	Lair P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
12', Blackwood D. 🟨,
30', 0 - 1, Guatemala D. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
53', 0 - 2, Robert F. (Penalty Awarded),
58', Fernandez K. ↓, Diaz B. ↑,
67', Delgado A. ↓, Reyes M. ↑,
67', Delgadillo M. ↓, Watson E. ↑,
67', Lopez J. ↓, Villalpando M. ↑,
72', Mayor S. 🟨,
81', 1 - 2, Ordonez D. (Penalty Awarded),
86', Jakobsson S. ↓, Munoz I. ↑,
90+1', Guatemala D. ↓, Cuevas B. ↑,

Preview

First leg result: 1-2. Second leg.

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX Women (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX Women (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tigres won 3.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

In this match, Tigres is seen as the favorite.

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Tigres won 12 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 51:10. (average 3:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Tigres won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 23:3. (average 2.9:0.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tigres UANL Women
Mexican Liga MX Women
30.04.26	Toluca - Tigres UANL	2:1 ✺
24.04.26	Monterrey - Tigres UANL	0:3 ✺
05.04.26	Tigres UANL - Chivas Guadalajara	2:2 ✺
02.04.26	Tijuana - Tigres UANL	0:2 ✺
25.03.26	Tigres UANL - Club America	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 LWTWL
- Deportivo Toluca Women
Mexican Liga MX Women
30.04.26	Toluca - Tigres UANL	2:1 ✺
24.04.26	Chivas Guadalajara - Toluca	1:1 ✺
04.04.26	Toluca - Cruz Azul	0:4 ✺
31.03.26	Club León - Toluca	3:3 ✺
27.03.26	Mazatlan - Toluca	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.1 WTLTW

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga MX Women
30.04.26	Toluca - Tigres UANL	2:1
21.01.26	Toluca - Tigres UANL	1:2
13.07.25	Tigres UANL - Toluca	1:1
26.01.25	Tigres UANL - Toluca	5:0
12.08.24	Toluca - Tigres UANL	0:6
09.02.24	Toluca - Tigres UANL	0:7
17.08.23	Tigres UANL - Toluca	3:1

Tigres UANL - Toluca: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide