Match Info

Liga MX Women - Apertura - Round 8

Date: 21 September 2026, Monday

Location: Estadio Nemesio Díez (Toluca)

Referee: Portillo F. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	ViX Gratis, VIX
South-america	ViX Latin America


	Toluca		Tigres UANL

	1	X	2
	2.85	3.50	2.05
	2.90	3.45	2.06
	2.74	3.84	2.28
	3.02	3.86	2.09	Watch
	2.70	3.80	2.25
	2.86	3.54	2.29	Watch
	2.80	3.60	2.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.84 ↓ (3.54)	3.66 ↑ (3.6)	2.17 ↑ (1.89)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Toluca
32.4%

Draw
25.2%

Tigres UANL
42.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.9%

25.5%

48.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.8%

25.4%

48.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Toluca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Toluca's performance.

Tigres UANL has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Tigres UANL might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (-6.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Toluca that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tigres UANL than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Tigres UANL could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

Toluca - Tigres UANL Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Toluca will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Tigres will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Martinez V. (G) 4. Rodriguez Perez Y. 2. Martinez K. 24. Veje K. 14. Blackwood D. 6. Henry A. (C) 23. Diaz B. 25. Robert F. 10. Cuevas B. 29. Pavi M. 9. Le Sommer E.	23. Gonzalez I. (G) 17. Enciso S. 20. Mariza 6. Lopez J. 22. Rodriguez A. 24. Reyes M. 8. Delgado A. 9. Mayor S. (C) 16. Kgatlana T. 12. Ordonez D. 7. Sanchez M.
Substitutes
7. Espinosa D. 8. Fernandez K. 16. Fernandez L. 5. Franco Y. 28. Gonzalez Diaz Barreiro S. 17. Jakobsson S. 1. Lozoya C. (G) 59. Monroy F. 15. Ramirez M. 22. Vazquez S.	5. Asantewaa G. 10. Castellanos D. 13. Coury N. 33. De Avila H. (G) 14. Delgadillo M. 30. Esquivel A. 2. Gonzalez M. 21. Izquierdo I. 11. Jheniffer 3. Villalpando M.
Coaches
Toril A.	Martinez P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 5)
9', Reyes M. 🟨,
11', 1 - 0, Henry A. ⚽,
17', Robert F. 🟨,
26', 1 - 1, Reyes M. ⚽, Lopez J. (A),
29', 1 - 2, Kgatlana T. ⚽, Mayor S. (A),
34', 1 - 3, Sanchez M. ⚽, Lopez J. (A),
41', 1 - 4, Kgatlana T. ⚽, Mariza (A),
45', 1 - 5, Kgatlana T. ⚽,
45+2', Martinez K. 🟥,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Reyes M. ↓, Asantewaa G. ↑,
46', Diaz B. ↓, Fernandez L. ↑,
46', Pavi M. ↓, Franco Y. ↑,
55', 1 - 6, Kgatlana T. ⚽, Delgado A. (A),
63', 1 - 7, Mariza ⚽, Enciso S. (A),
67', Ordonez D. ↓, Jheniffer ↑,
67', Delgado A. ↓, Izquierdo I. ↑,
67', Mayor S. ↓, Castellanos D. ↑,
68', Cuevas B. ↓, Ramirez M. ↑,
81', Robert F. ↓, Espinosa D. ↑,
81', Rodriguez Perez Y. ↓, Monroy F. ↑,
81', Enciso S. 🟨,
83', Enciso S. ↓, Delgadillo M. ↑,
90+1', Mariza 🟥,
90+2', 2 - 7, Henry A. ⚽,

Preview

One of the standout fixtures of the round, featuring two top-tier sides (ranked 3rd in the Promotion ~ Liga MX Women (Apertura ~ Playoffs and 2nd in the Promotion ~ Liga MX Women (Apertura ~ Playoffs).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 2.

Both teams enter this match with positive momentum from recent weeks.

Tigres could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 18 head-to-head meetings, Toluca has recorded 2 wins, 4 draws, and 12 losses, with a goal aggregate of 12:52 (averaging 0.7:2.9 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Toluca against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 2 draws, and 6 losses, with 7:28 goals (averaging 0.8:3.1 per game).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Toluca Women
Mexican Liga MX Women
14.09.26	Toluca - Tijuana	6:0 ✺
05.09.26	Monterrey - Toluca	5:1 ✺
28.08.26	Toluca - Club León	1:0 ✺
24.08.26	Atlante - Toluca	1:2 ✺
17.08.26	Toluca - Atlas	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 WLWWT
- Tigres UANL Women
Mexican Liga MX Women
13.09.26	Club America - Tigres UANL	5:2 ✺
06.09.26	Tigres UANL - Santos Laguna	3:0 ✺
29.08.26	Tigres UANL - Pachuca	2:0 ✺
22.08.26	Cruz Azul - Tigres UANL	0:3 ✺
15.08.26	Tigres UANL - Juárez	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga MX Women
03.05.26	Tigres UANL - Toluca	1:2
30.04.26	Toluca - Tigres UANL	2:1
21.01.26	Toluca - Tigres UANL	1:2
13.07.25	Tigres UANL - Toluca	1:1
26.01.25	Tigres UANL - Toluca	5:0
12.08.24	Toluca - Tigres UANL	0:6
09.02.24	Toluca - Tigres UANL	0:7

Toluca - Tigres UANL: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide