Match Info

Liga MX Women - Clausura - Round 16

Date: 4 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Nemesio Díez (Toluca)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	ViX Gratis, VIX+
South-america	ViX Latin America


	Toluca		Cruz Azul

	1	X	2
	1.9	3.65	3.2
	1.81	4.13	3.72
	1.89	3.95	3.48	Watch
	1.8	3.7	3.3
	1.83	4.17	3.55	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.85 (1.85)	3.92 ↑ (3.65)	3.45 ↑ (3.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Toluca
49.9%

Draw
23.5%

Cruz Azul
26.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.4%

24.5%

27.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.9%

25.2%

26.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Toluca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

Cruz Azul has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

The ML Model estimate for Toluca aligns with the current prediction.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cruz Azul than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

Toluca - Cruz Azul Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Martinez V. (G) 14. Blackwood D. 10. Cuevas B. 23. Diaz B. 5. Erceg A. 16. Fernandez L. (C) 11. Guatemala D. 99. Le Sommer E. 29. Pavi M. 25. Robert F. 4. Rodriguez Perez Y.	12. Godinez A. (G) 18. Abam M. 7. Angeles L. (C) 5. Frias A. 29. Kanu U. 9. Martinez A. 11. Mendoza D. 2. Miranda V. 3. Robe L. 6. Rodriguez L. 26. Torres A.
Substitutes
8. Fernandez K. 17. Jakobsson S. 31. Jimenez S. (G) 13. Lopez V. 2. Martinez K. 7. Peraza C. 15. Ramirez M. 9. Roman M. 21. Valadez N.	13. Calderon D. 28. Garcia A. 23. Gutierrez I. 14. Leon M. 8. Lomeli A. 16. Martinez L. 17. Montano Osuna M. C. 19. Valdez V. 1. Villeda M. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
13', 0 - 1, Kanu U. ⚽,
24', 0 - 2, Kanu U. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Torres A. ↓, Gutierrez I. ↑,
46', Rodriguez Perez Y. ↓, Jakobsson S. ↑,
50', Frias A. 🟨,
53', Blackwood D. 🟨,
54', Guatemala D. ↓, Martinez K. ↑,
55', 0 - 3, Martinez A. ⚽,
62', Frias A. ↓, Leon M. ↑,
64', Blackwood D. ↓, Roman M. ↑,
69', Diaz B. ↓, Fernandez K. ↑,
73', Abam M. ↓, Calderon D. ↑,
74', Pavi M. 🟨,
86', Angeles L. ↓, Valdez V. ↑,
86', Martinez A. ↓, Martinez L. ↑,
89', 0 - 4, Kanu U. ⚽,
90+1', Godinez A. 🟨,

Preview

A great opportunity to watch a clash of neighbouring teams in the table (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX Women (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX Women (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals))

Toluca is Qualified for Liga MX Women (Clausura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 3.

Now, both teams are in good form.

Cruz Azul may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 11 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 36:19. (average 2.1:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Toluca won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 20:6. (average 2.5:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Toluca Women
Mexican Liga MX Women
31.03.26	Club León - Toluca	3:3 ✺
27.03.26	Mazatlan - Toluca	2:3 ✺
20.03.26	Toluca - Necaxa	5:1 ✺
16.03.26	Club America - Toluca	2:0 ✺
12.03.26	Toluca - UNAM	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 TWWLW
- Cruz Azul FC Women
Mexican Liga MX Women
01.04.26	Atlético San Luis - Cruz Azul	3:2 ✺
28.03.26	Cruz Azul - Puebla	4:0 ✺
21.03.26	Cruz Azul - Mazatlan	1:0 ✺
17.03.26	Santos Laguna - Cruz Azul	0:2 ✺
12.03.26	Cruz Azul - Necaxa	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga MX Women
26.08.25	Cruz Azul - Toluca	4:3
13.03.25	Cruz Azul - Toluca	2:1
12.10.24	Toluca - Cruz Azul	3:1
22.04.24	Cruz Azul - Toluca	2:3
20.10.23	Toluca - Cruz Azul	3:0
06.05.23	Cruz Azul - Toluca	0:1
15.08.22	Toluca - Cruz Azul	2:0

Toluca - Cruz Azul: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide