Match Info

Liga MX Women - Apertura - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 9 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Nemesio Díez (Toluca)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Nu9ve, TUDN, ViX Gratis, VIX+
South-america	ViX Latin America
Usa	TUDN App, TUDN


	Toluca		Chivas Guadalajara

	1	X	2
	2.35	3.25	2.62
	2.66	3.41	2.54
	2.62	3.59	2.42	Watch
	2.38	3.24	2.61	Watch
	2.46	3.35	2.74
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.49 ↑ (2.33)	3.37 ↑ (3.3)	2.59 ↑ (2.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Toluca
37%

Draw
27.4%

Chivas Guadalajara
35.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.2%

26.9%

34.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.6%

26.6%

34.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Toluca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

Chivas Guadalajara has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chivas Guadalajara than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

Toluca - Chivas Guadalajara Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Toluca (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Martinez V. (G) 10. Cuevas B. 5. Erceg A. 16. Fernandez L. 28. Henry A. (C) 99. Le Sommer E. 13. Lopez V. 2. Martinez K. 7. Peraza C. 25. Robert F. 17. van de Sanden S.	1. Espino C. (G) 22. Castro D. 24. Cervantes A. 14. De La Rosa J. 11. Franco Y. 3. Godinez D. 8. Jaramillo C. 7. Montero C. (C) 30. Salazar E. 9. Valenzuela G. 17. Villarreal N.
Substitutes
8. Cortez V. 11. Guatemala D. 3. Lopez J. 27. Munoz B. A. H. 26. Munoz I. 15. Ramirez M. 33. Thompson K. (G) 21. Valadez N. 6. Vazquez S.	34. Aguirre Z. (G) 19. Delgado D. 15. Esquivias I. 20. Gonzalez Rendon I. A. 4. Guzman K. 18. Hernandez D. 10. Iturbide A. 27. Lopez A. 25. Montoya J. 26. Torres A.
Coaches
Lair P.	Contreras A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
19', Henry A. 🟨,
32', Peraza C. 🟨,
35', 0 - 1, Cervantes A. ⚽, Salazar E. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
47', van de Sanden S. 🟨,
64', Salazar E. ↓, Delgado D. ↑,
68', Cuevas B. ↓, Vazquez S. ↑,
72', Castro D. ↓, Montoya J. ↑,
77', Cervantes A. 🟨,
78', 🟨,
83', 0 - 2, Cervantes A. ⚽,
90', Cervantes A. ↓, Iturbide A. ↑,
90+1', Delgado D. 🟨,
90+5', Franco Y. 🟨,
90+6', Espino C. 🟨,

Preview

1st leg result: 2-2. 2nd leg.

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX Women (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX Women (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 2.

Toluca is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Guadalajara has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Recently, Guadalajara has had a series of home games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 13:35. (average 0.7:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Toluca won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 8:19. (average 0.9:2.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Toluca Women
Mexican Liga MX Women
06.11.25	Chivas Guadalajara - Toluca	2:2 ✺
31.10.25	Toluca - Puebla	4:1 ✺
17.10.25	Necaxa - Toluca	0:2 ✺
12.10.25	Atlético San Luis - Toluca	1:1 ✺
04.10.25	Toluca - Mazatlan	6:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 TWWTW
- Chivas Guadalajara Women
Mexican Liga MX Women
06.11.25	Chivas Guadalajara - Toluca	2:2 ✺
31.10.25	Chivas Guadalajara - Necaxa	4:0 ✺
19.10.25	Pachuca - Chivas Guadalajara	2:1 ✺
12.10.25	Chivas Guadalajara - Puebla	1:1 ✺
05.10.25	Chivas Guadalajara - UNAM	4:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 TWLTW

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga MX Women
06.11.25	Chivas Guadalajara - Toluca	2:2
13.08.25	Toluca - Chivas Guadalajara	2:1
13.02.25	Chivas Guadalajara - Toluca	1:0
02.09.24	Toluca - Chivas Guadalajara	2:0
21.01.24	Chivas Guadalajara - Toluca	1:1
12.11.23	Chivas Guadalajara - Toluca	2:1
09.11.23	Toluca - Chivas Guadalajara	0:3

Toluca - Chivas Guadalajara: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide