Match Info

Liga MX Women - Clausura - Round 17

Date: 24 April 2026, Friday

Location: Estadio Akron (Zapopan)

Referee: Marquez Lopez M. F. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, FOX One, Tubi TV
Usa	FOX Deportes, FOX Deportes, FOX One, FOX Sports App, Foxsports.com, Telemundo


	Chivas Guadalajara		Toluca

	1	X	2
	1.98	3.55	3.05
	2.02	3.75	3.32
	2.01	3.82	3.22	Watch
	1.95	3.3	3.1
	2.01	3.78	3.26
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.99 ↑ (1.98)	3.64 ↑ (3.5)	3.19 ↑ (3.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chivas Guadalajara
46%

Draw
25.2%

Toluca
28.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.4%

25.7%

29%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.4%

24.6%

27.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chivas Guadalajara has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Toluca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chivas Guadalajara than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (-1%)

Chivas Guadalajara - Toluca Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Felix Castro B. M. (G) 23. Casarez J. A. 22. Castro D. 5. Ferral C. 11. Franco Y. 3. Godinez D. 16. Gonzalez E. 8. Jaramillo C. 21. Lopez S. 9. Valenzuela G. 17. Villarreal N.	12. Martinez V. (G) 14. Blackwood D. 10. Cuevas B. 23. Diaz B. 5. Erceg A. 16. Fernandez L. 11. Guatemala D. 17. Jakobsson S. 13. Lopez V. 25. Robert F. 4. Rodriguez Perez Y.
Substitutes
24. Cervantes A. 14. De La Rosa J. 1. Espino C. (G) 15. Esquivias I. 10. Iturbide A. 7. Montero C. 25. Montoya J. 13. Pelayo M. 2. Rodriguez D. 30. Salazar E.	21. Elizabeth Macias Sandoval N. (G) 8. Fernandez K. 28. Henry A. 99. Le Sommer E. 2. Martinez K. 26. Munoz I. 29. Pavi M. 7. Peraza C.
Coaches
Contreras A.	Lair P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
60', Castro D. ↓, Cervantes A. ↑,
63', Diaz B. ↓, Henry A. ↑,
63', Lopez V. ↓, Le Sommer E. ↑,
65', 1 - 0, Lopez S. ⚽,
71', Rodriguez Perez Y. ↓, Martinez K. ↑,
73', 1 - 1, Le Sommer E. ⚽,
77', Casarez J. A. ↓, Salazar E. ↑,
84', Jakobsson S. ↓, Valadez N. ↑,
86', Franco Y. ↓, Pelayo M. ↑,

Preview

First leg result: 2-2. Aggregate: 2-4. 2nd leg.

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX Women (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX Women (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Guadalajara is Qualified for Liga MX Women (Clausura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)

Toluca is Qualified for Liga MX Women (Clausura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Guadalajara won 2.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Toluca may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Guadalajara has had a series of away games.

Guadalajara could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Guadalajara won 13 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 37:13. (average 1.9:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Guadalajara won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 16:5. (average 1.8:0.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chivas Guadalajara Women
Mexican Liga MX Women
20.04.26	Juárez - Chivas Guadalajara	1:1 ✺
05.04.26	Tigres UANL - Chivas Guadalajara	2:2 ✺
02.04.26	Chivas Guadalajara - Mazatlan	1:0 ✺
29.03.26	Tijuana - Chivas Guadalajara	1:1 ✺
20.03.26	Monterrey - Chivas Guadalajara	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 TTWTT
- Deportivo Toluca Women
Mexican Liga MX Women
04.04.26	Toluca - Cruz Azul	0:4 ✺
31.03.26	Club León - Toluca	3:3 ✺
27.03.26	Mazatlan - Toluca	2:3 ✺
20.03.26	Toluca - Necaxa	5:1 ✺
16.03.26	Club America - Toluca	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.2 LTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga MX Women
09.11.25	Toluca - Chivas Guadalajara	0:2
06.11.25	Chivas Guadalajara - Toluca	2:2
13.08.25	Toluca - Chivas Guadalajara	2:1
13.02.25	Chivas Guadalajara - Toluca	1:0
02.09.24	Toluca - Chivas Guadalajara	2:0
21.01.24	Chivas Guadalajara - Toluca	1:1
12.11.23	Chivas Guadalajara - Toluca	2:1

Chivas Guadalajara - Toluca: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide