Match Info

ITALY: SERIE D - GROUP G - ROUND 26

Date: 5 March 2023, Sunday


	Tivoli Calcio		Casertana

	1	X	2
	2.9	3.1	2.2
	2.81	3.2	2.27
	2.84	3.2	2.37
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.85 ↓ (3.46)	3.17 ↑ (3.17)	2.28 ↑ (1.99)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tivoli Calcio
31.7%

Draw
28.6%

Casertana
39.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.1%

28.5%

45.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.6%

26.9%

48.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tivoli Calcio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Tivoli Calcio's performance.

Casertana has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Casertana might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tivoli Calcio than the current prediction. (-7.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Tivoli Calcio that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Casertana than the current prediction. (+8.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Casertana could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

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Preview

Outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 16 in the zone Serie D ~ Group G (Play Out) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie D ~ Group G (Play Offs)).

Recent matches Tivoli is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Casertana is in super shape now and in the last match got series of victories (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Casertana could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Tivoli won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tivoli Calcio
Italian Serie D - Group G
25.02.23	Atletico Uri - Tivoli Calcio	2:0 ✺
19.02.23	Tivoli Calcio - Arzachena	1:1 ✺
12.02.23	Vis Artena - Tivoli Calcio	0:0 ✺
05.02.23	Tivoli Calcio - Sorrento	0:0 ✺
29.01.23	Pomezia - Tivoli Calcio	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 LTTTT
- FC Casertana
Italian Serie D - Group G
26.02.23	Casertana - Pomezia	2:0 ✺
18.02.23	Romana - Casertana	0:1 ✺
12.02.23	Casertana - Real Monterotondo	2:0 ✺
05.02.23	Sarrabus Ogliastra - Casertana	0:1 ✺
29.01.23	Casertana - Cassino	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 WWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group G
29.10.22	Casertana - Tivoli Calcio	1:1

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