Match Info

First League - Round 8

Date: 27 May 2026, Wednesday


	Tobol 2		Taraz

	1	X	2
	4.75	4.35	1.49
	4.45	4.15	1.46
	1.41	4.59	6.30	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.54 ↓ (5.7)	4.36 ↓ (4.65)	3.08 ↑ (1.39)

The best margin for this event is 8.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tobol 2
33.8%

Draw
27.4%

Taraz
38.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

15.8%

19.4%

64.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

15.4%

18.9%

66.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tobol 2 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+18%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Tobol 2's performance.

Taraz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-26%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Taraz might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tobol 2 than the current prediction. (-18.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Tobol 2 that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Taraz than the current prediction. (+27.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Taraz could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 1)
9', 1 - 0, Toktasynov O. ⚽, Saduakas A. (A),
35', 1 - 1, Mukhametzhanov A. ⚽, Toybekov E. (A),
43', 2 - 1, Kabylzagin B. ⚽, Zhaksylyk N. (A),
45+4', 3 - 1, Kabylzagin B. ⚽, Bekhzat S. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
82', 3 - 2, Dairov N. ⚽, Lesbek D. (A),
90+2', 3 - 3, Torekul E. ⚽, Torebek T. (A),

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 12 and 3).

Recent form of Tobol 2 has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Taraz is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

In this match, Taraz is the clear favorite.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Taraz	23	8	6	9	30:32	-2	30
13	Tobol 2	23	4	4	15	40:57	-17	16

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tobol Kostanay 2
Kazakh First League
22.05.26	Khan Tengri - Tobol 2	2:1 ✺
14.05.26	Tobol 2 - Astana 2	1:2 ✺
07.05.26	Tobol 2 - Arys	4:3 ✺
01.05.26	Shakhter Karagandy - Tobol 2	3:0 ✺
24.04.26	Tobol 2 - Turan Turkistan	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LLWLL
- FC Taraz
Kazakh First League
22.05.26	Taraz - Arys	2:1 ✺
14.05.26	Turan Turkistan - Taraz	0:2 ✺
08.05.26	Taraz - Jaiyq	2:1 ✺
01.05.26	Akademiya Ontustik - Taraz	2:1 ✺
24.04.26	Taraz - Yelimay 2	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 WWWLW

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