Match Info

EUROPE: EUROPA CONFERENCE LEAGUE - QUALIFICATION - 1/8-FINALS

Date: 13 July 2023, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: Centralnyj Stadion (Kostanay) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Dzmitryieu D. (Blr)


	Tobol Kostanay		Honka

	1	X	2
	1.95	3	3.75	Watch
	2	2.95	3.75	Watch
	2	3.1	3.4
	1.98	3	4.25
	2.02	3.06	4.23
	2.06	3.13	3.92	Watch
	2.1	3.1	4.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.02 ↓ (2.5)	3.05 ↓ (3.14)	3.93 ↑ (2.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tobol Kostanay
46%

Draw
30.4%

Honka
23.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

37.3%

29.7%

33%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.1%

30.3%

32.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tobol Kostanay has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Tobol Kostanay's performance.

Honka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Honka might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tobol Kostanay than the current prediction. (-7.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Tobol Kostanay that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Honka than the current prediction. (+8.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Honka could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	22.2%	11.1%

Tobol Kostanay - Honka Predictions

Users Predictions: 27 users predict this event. Tobol will win (votes: 18 - 66.7%). Honka will win (votes: 3 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Tobol: 48.9% – 84.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Konovalov I. (G) 15. Gabaraev A. 4. Rogac I. 30. Mladjovic B. 3. Asrankulov R. 14. Zharynbetov S. 10. Muzhikov S. (C) 11. Chesnokov I. 20. Orazov R. 21. Vukadinovic M. 8. Deble S.	1. Rudakov M. (G) 20. Rale M. 21. Koski V. 23. Hernandez A. 47. Aijala E. 24. Banahene N. 7. Bauque C. 32. Ortiz L. 13. Eremenko R. 10. Kaufmann L. (C) 88. Koskinen O.
Substitutes
88. Akmurzin T. (G) 12. Busurmanov S. (G) 51. Galym B. 6. Ilic J. 24. Kairov B. 18. Kireenko P. 19. Mrkaic M. 5. Semchenkov D. 99. Suljic A. 13. Zabelin P. 17. Zhakupov T. 7. Zhumashev Z.	9. Alegria J. 4. Baak F. 17. Laine L. 16. Muzinga J. 26. Naamo D. 12. Paunio R. (G) 14. Saarikivi N. 60. Tanska J. (G) 48. Ulundu V.
Coaches
Curcic M.	Vasara V.

Preview

1st leg.

Recent matches Tobol is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Honka is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Tobol could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Tobol is a favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tobol Kostanay
Kazakh Cup
08.07.23	Atyrau - Tobol Kostanay	0:1 ✺
Kazakh Premier League
02.07.23	Tobol Kostanay - Atyrau	1:0 ✺
Kazakh Cup
28.06.23	Tobol Kostanay - Atyrau	1:0 ✺
Kazakh Premier League
24.06.23	Atyrau - Tobol Kostanay	3:0 ✺
Kazakh Cup
07.06.23	Shakhter Karagandy - Tobol Kostanay	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 WWWLL
- FC Honka
Finnish Veikkausliiga
08.07.23	SJK - Honka	1:0 ✺
Finnish Cup
05.07.23	Salon Palloilijat - Honka	1:3 ✺
Finnish Veikkausliiga
01.07.23	Honka - HJK	1:1 ✺
27.06.23	Honka - VPS Vaasa	1:0 ✺
Finnish Cup
21.06.23	Honka - Honka Akatemia	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 LWTWW

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tobol Kostanay
Kazakh Premier League
31.10.26	Tobol Kostanay - Aktobe	✺

Tobol Kostanay - Honka