Match Info

KAZAKHSTAN: PREMIER LEAGUE - ROUND 10

Date: 21 May 2023, Sunday

Location: Centralnyj Stadion (Kostanay)

Referee: Aliyev A. (Kaz)


	Tobol Kostanay		Makhtaaral

	1	X	2
	1.37	4.4	6.25
	1.38	4.35	6.4
	1.36	4.2	7
	1.4	4.6	6.95	Watch
	1.39	4.6	6.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.38 ↓ (1.47)	4.43 ↑ (3.79)	6.64 ↓ (7.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tobol Kostanay
65.8%

Draw
20.5%

Makhtaaral
13.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.6%

24.3%

13.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.4%

14.5%

21.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tobol Kostanay has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

Makhtaaral has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tobol Kostanay than the current prediction. (-28.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Tobol Kostanay that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Makhtaaral than the current prediction. (+8.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Makhtaaral could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Tobol Kostanay - Makhtaaral Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Team outsider and a mid-table team will meet during this match (ranked 10 and 14 in the zone Relegation).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Tobol won 1.

Tobol is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Makhtaaral has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Tobol could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Makhtaaral have a series of home games.

In this match Tobol is the unquestionable favorite.

Last 6 head-to-head matches Tobol won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 9-17.

Including matches at home between the teams Tobol won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 8-10.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tobol Kostanay
Kazakh Cup
17.05.23	Tobol Kostanay - Shakhter Karagandy	2:0 ✺
Kazakh Premier League
14.05.23	Kaisar - Tobol Kostanay	1:0 ✺
06.05.23	Tobol Kostanay - Kairat	2:3 ✺
Kazakh Cup
30.04.23	Aksu - Tobol Kostanay	2:1 ✺
Kazakh Premier League
23.04.23	Tobol Kostanay - Aktobe	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 WLLLT
- FC Makhtaaral
Kazakh Premier League
13.05.23	Makhtaaral - Ordabasy	1:2 ✺
10.05.23	Makhtaaral - Astana	0:1 ✺
06.05.23	Astana - Makhtaaral	2:0 ✺
Kazakh Cup
29.04.23	Makhtaaral - Ordabasy	1:4 ✺
Kazakh Premier League
22.04.23	Makhtaaral - Zhetysu	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Kazakh Premier League
23.10.22	Makhtaaral - Tobol Kostanay	2:1
Kazakh Cup
31.07.22	Makhtaaral - Tobol Kostanay	1:0
24.07.22	Tobol Kostanay - Makhtaaral	1:4
Kazakh Premier League
22.05.22	Tobol Kostanay - Makhtaaral	4:2
Kazakh Cup
01.08.21	Makhtaaral - Tobol Kostanay	4:0
25.07.21	Tobol Kostanay - Makhtaaral	3:4

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