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Current Win Probability
Tobol Kostanay 26%
Draw 27.7%
Kairat 46.3%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
33%
30.3%
36.8%
Our Initial ML Estimation
32.6%
30%
37.2%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Tobol Kostanay has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Tobol Kostanay's form might have worsened.
Kairat has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.5%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Kairat's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tobol Kostanay than the current prediction. (+6.6%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Tobol Kostanay, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kairat than the current prediction. (-9.1%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Kairat, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
0%
0%
100%
Tobol Kostanay - Kairat Predictions
Users Predictions:
7 users predict this event. Kairat will win (votes: 7 - 100%).
1. Busurmanov S. (G) 22. Marochkin A. 4. Cavnic N. 5. Ndiaye P. 15. Vukcevic M. 8. Tagybergen A. (C) 6. Myakish M. 21. Zhagorov N. 30. Guerra L. 7. Zhumashev Z. 18. Milovanovic U.
1. Anarbekov T. (G) 24. Mrynskiy A. 14. Martynovich A. (C) 44. Lucas Africo 3. Mata L. 6. Sadybekov A. 13. Oksanen J. 10. Satpaev D. 7. Jorginho 19. Jukkola O. 9. Edmilson
Substitutes
3. Asrankulov R. 13. Cisse A. 26. Glushchenkov K. 99. Hebaj R. 88. Kalmyrza M. 11. Marat D. 35. Melikhov Y. (G) 33. Pivovarov I. 29. Usenov D. 44. Ustimenko D. (G) 19. Zhumat D. 17. Zuev A.
23. Bagdat R. 8. Baybek O. 82. Kalmurza S. (G) 4. Kasabulat D. 5. Kurgin L. 99. Ricardinho 25. Shirobokov A. 20. Tapalov E. 17. Tuyakbaev A. 11. Zeballos S.
Coaches
Zhumaskaliyev N.
Urazbakhtin R.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 1)
13', 1 - 0, Milovanovic U. ⚽, Ndiaye P. (A),
19', 1 - 1, Satpaev D. ⚽, Jorginho (A),
35', Guerra L. 🟨,
40', Marochkin A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
53', Tagybergen A. 🟨,
56', Zhumashev Z. 🟨,
61', Edmilson ↓, Shirobokov A. ↑,
61', Mrynskiy A. ↓, Tapalov E. ↑,
63', Oksanen J. 🟨,
73', Cavnic N. 🟨,
74', Zhumashev Z. ↓, Zuev A. ↑,
74', Guerra L. ↓, Marat D. ↑,
75', Sadybekov A. ↓, Kasabulat D. ↑,
75', Jukkola O. ↓, Ricardinho ↑,
77', Cavnic N. ↓, Glushchenkov K. ↑,
87', Jorginho ↓, Tuyakbaev A. ↑,
88', Tagybergen A. ↓, Cisse A. ↑,
88', Milovanovic U. ↓, Hebaj R. ↑,
90', Marat D. 🟨,
Preview
This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation ~ First League and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tobol won 2.
Recent form of Tobol has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).
Kairat is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
Tobol may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
Recently, Tobol has had a series of away games.
Kairat might have a minor edge in this game.
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Tobol won 7 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 36:41. (average 1.8:2.1).
Including home matches between the teams, Tobol won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 17:23. (average 1.9:2.6).
Kazakhstan
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Busurmanov S. (G) 
Cavnic N. 
Ndiaye P. 
Myakish M. 
Guerra L. 
Milovanovic U. 
Lucas Africo 
Mata L. 
Oksanen J. 
Cisse A. 
Glushchenkov K. 
Hebaj R. 
Zeballos S. 
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