Match Info

Premier League - Round 10

Date: 17 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Kaysar Arena (Kyzylorda)

Referee: Sariev B. (Kaz)

Where to Watch on TV:


Kazakhstan	Qazsport, Sport+


	Kaisar		Tobol Kostanay

	1	X	2
	3.6	3.2	1.87
	3.25	3.05	2.2	Watch
	3.28	3.15	2.25
	3.36	3	2.19	Watch
	3.75	3.1	1.91
	3.43	3.12	2.21	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.45 ↑ (3.18)	3.1 ↑ (3.04)	2.11 ↓ (2.26)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kaisar
26.7%

Draw
29.6%

Tobol Kostanay
43.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29%

30.3%

40.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.5%

28.7%

42.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kaisar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

Tobol Kostanay has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kaisar than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tobol Kostanay than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	33.3%	33.3%

Kaisar - Tobol Kostanay Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Kaisar will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tobol will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
40. Kovac A. (G) 93. Askarov S. 3. Tolegenov A. (C) 15. Idrisov N. 47. Konlimkos B. 42. Miqueias 24. Cuckic N. 8. Abiken A. 12. Sovet S. 96. Mukhammed A. 11. Moses V.	1. Busurmanov S. (G) 21. Zhagorov N. 22. Marochkin A. 5. Ndiaye P. 88. Kalmyrza M. 13. Cisse A. 19. Zhumat D. 8. Tagybergen A. (C) 7. Zhumashev Z. 18. Milovanovic U. 30. Guerra L.
Substitutes
9. Agzambaev N. 16. Azhikhan A. (G) 70. Ezekiel I. 14. Jones T. 6. Kaldybekov E. 5. Kenesbek A. 51. Mokhammad A. 18. Rustemuly D. 1. Salaydin N. (G) 21. Serikuly D. 17. Zhumabekov S. 23. Zhumat M.	38. Bakitzhanov A. 26. Glushchenkov K. 11. Marat D. 35. Melikhov Y. (G) 6. Myakish M. 14. Talal A. 29. Usenov D. 44. Ustimenko D. (G) 57. Zinadin A. 17. Zuev A.
Coaches
Ferapontov A.	Romashchenko M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
2', 1 - 0, Abiken A. ⚽, Moses V. (A),
9', 2 - 0, Abiken A. ⚽, Askarov S. (A),
12', Kalmyrza M. ↓, Zuev A. ↑,
30', 2 - 1, Zhumashev Z. ⚽, Guerra L. (A),
39', Zhumat D. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Zhumat D. ↓, Talal A. ↑,
55', Ndiaye P. ↓, Glushchenkov K. ↑,
70', Konlimkos B. ↓, Zhumat M. ↑,
76', Guerra L. ↓, Zinadin A. ↑,
77', Miqueias ↓, Zhumabekov S. ↑,
86', Abiken A. ↓, Kenesbek A. ↑,
86', Moses V. 🟨,
90', Kenesbek A. 🟨,
90+2', Ezekiel I. 🟨,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 15 in the zone Relegation ~ First League and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kaisar won 3.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Tobol may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Kaisar has had a series of home games.

Tobol might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Kaisar won 10 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 31:22. (average 1.6:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Kaisar won 7 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 25:15. (average 2.1:1.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Tobol	26	10	4	12	33:35	-2	34
13	Kaisar Kyzylorda	26	4	12	10	22:33	-11	24

Last Results with these Odds

Kaisar - the odds 3.18 are the expected chance of winning is 28.96%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kaisar Kyzylorda
Kazakh Cup
13.05.26	Kaisar - Tobol Kostanay	2:1 penalties ✺
Kazakh Premier League
10.05.26	Aktobe - Kaisar	3:0 ✺
06.05.26	Kaisar - Kairat	1:2 ✺
02.05.26	Kaisar - Zhetysu	1:1 ✺
Kazakh Cup
29.04.26	Kaisar - Kairat	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 WLLTW
- Tobol Kostanay
Kazakh Cup
13.05.26	Kaisar - Tobol Kostanay	2:1 penalties ✺
Kazakh Premier League
09.05.26	Tobol Kostanay - Ertis Pavlodar	1:0 ✺
03.05.26	Zhenis - Tobol Kostanay	1:0 ✺
Kazakh Cup
29.04.26	Astana - Tobol Kostanay	1:2 ✺
Kazakh Premier League
26.04.26	Tobol Kostanay - Kaspiy Aktau	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 LWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Kazakh Cup
13.05.26	Kaisar - Tobol Kostanay	2:1 penalties
Kazakh Premier League
28.09.25	Tobol Kostanay - Kaisar	1:0
15.06.25	Kaisar - Tobol Kostanay	1:1
10.11.24	Kaisar - Tobol Kostanay	2:0
Kazakh League Cup
21.07.24	Kaisar - Tobol Kostanay	5:1
Kazakh Premier League
01.06.24	Tobol Kostanay - Kaisar	1:2
Kazakh Cup
13.04.24	Kaisar - Tobol Kostanay	0:3

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