Match Info

Serie D - Round 3

Date: 3 May 2025, Saturday


	Tocantinópolis		Sampaio Corrêa

	1	X	2
	2.25	3	2.87
	2.34	2.9	3.05
	2.33	3.05	3.23
	2.39	2.88	3.1
	2.37	2.7	3.03
	2.37	2.93	2.99
	2.34	2.9	3.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.34 ↓ (2.87)	2.91 ↓ (3.13)	3.05 ↑ (2.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tocantinópolis
38.9%

Draw
31.3%

Sampaio Corrêa
29.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.7%

29.1%

39.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.1%

29.5%

38.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tocantinópolis has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Tocantinópolis's performance.

Sampaio Corrêa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Sampaio Corrêa might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tocantinópolis than the current prediction. (-6.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Tocantinópolis that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sampaio Corrêa than the current prediction. (+8.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Sampaio Corrêa could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Tocantinópolis - Sampaio Corrêa Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie D (Play Offs: 1/16~finals) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie D (Play Offs: 1/16~finals))

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Tocantinópolis may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tocantinópolis EC
Brazilian Serie D
26.04.25	Altos - Tocantinópolis	1:1 ✺
19.04.25	Tocantinópolis - Maracanã	2:2 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Tocantinense
26.03.25	Tocantinópolis - União Carmolandense	0:0 ✺
22.03.25	União Carmolandense - Tocantinópolis	1:0 ✺
15.03.25	Tocantinópolis - Batalhão	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 TTTLW
- Sampaio Corrêa
Brazilian Campeonato Maranhense
30.04.25	Imperatriz de Desportos - Sampaio Corrêa	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie D
26.04.25	Sampaio Corrêa - Parnahyba	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Maranhense
23.04.25	Sampaio Corrêa - Maranhão	0:3 ✺
Brazilian Serie D
19.04.25	Iguatu - Sampaio Corrêa	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Maranhense
15.04.25	Sampaio Corrêa - Tuntum	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 WWLLT

Tocantinópolis - Sampaio Corrêa: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide