Match Info

J2 League - Round 5

Date: 5 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Pocarisweat Stadium (Naruto)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Tokushima Vortis		Iwaki

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.2	2.85
	2.25	3.00	2.85
	2.32	3.05	2.9	Watch
	2.45	3.28	3.04
	2.36	3.25	3.01	Watch
	2.35	3.25	3
	2.45	3.27	2.82	Watch
	2.35	3.15	2.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.35 ↑ (2.29)	3.18 ↑ (3.12)	2.93 ↓ (3.19)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tokushima Vortis
39.4%

Draw
29.1%

Iwaki
31.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.8%

29.9%

29.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.5%

28.7%

28.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tokushima Vortis has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

Iwaki has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tokushima Vortis than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Iwaki than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	40%	20%

Tokushima Vortis - Iwaki Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Tokushima will win (votes: 2 - 40%). Iwaki will win (votes: 1 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
37. Kitamura K. C. (G) 97. Moyo M. 3. Yamada N. 2. Tanaka H. 22. Yanagisawa K. 6. Kanuma N. 8. Iwao K. 42. Takagi Y. 11. Lucas Barcelos 10. Sugimoto T. 16. Watari D.	23. Sasaki M. (G) 15. Nakano H. 6. Iwashita W. 22. Takahashi Y. 37. Okaniwa S. 13. Fujii K. 27. Yamanaka A. 10. Nishitani R. 14. Yamaguchi D. 11. Kato T. 9. Michiwaki Y.
Substitutes
31. Hasegawa T. (G) 17. Inami T. 4. Kaique 14. Kajiya Y. 7. Kodama S. 19. Miyazaki J. 55. Shigehiro T. 9. Thonny Anderson 15. Yamakoshi K.	3. Endo R. 35. Fukaminato S. 28. Hisanaga R. 5. Kuwata T. 21. Matsumoto R. (G) 40. Nagaki R. 7. Nakajima S. 29. Tanaka K.
Coaches
Yoshimoto T.	Tamura Y.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
22', Iwao K. 🟨,
35', 1 - 0, Watari D. ⚽,
45+1', Moyo M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
62', Watari D. ↓, Kajiya Y. ↑,
63', Takahashi Y. ↓, Kuwata T. ↑,
63', Yamanaka A. ↓, Nakajima S. ↑,
67', Fujii K. 🟨,
76', Michiwaki Y. ↓, Tanaka K. ↑,
80', Iwao K. ↓, Inami T. ↑,
80', Sugimoto T. ↓, Kodama S. ↑,
84', Nishitani R. ↓, Fukaminato S. ↑,
87', Lucas Barcelos ↓, Thonny Anderson ↑,
87', Takagi Y. ↓, Miyazaki J. ↑,
90+3', Thonny Anderson 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tokushima won 1.

In recent matches, Tokushima has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Iwaki has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Tokushima will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Tokushima won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 8:6. (average 1:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Tokushima won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:3. (average 1.2:0.6).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Tokushima	9	4	1	4	9:10	-1	13
16	Iwaki	9	3	0	6	12:17	-5	9

Last Results with these Odds

Tokushima Vortis - the odds 2.29 are the expected chance of winning is 40.79%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tokushima Vortis
Japan J League Cup
02.09.26	Gifu - Tokushima Vortis	1:0 penalties ✺
Japan J2 League
29.08.26	Tokushima Vortis - Oita Trinita	1:0 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
26.08.26	Tokushima Vortis - FC Tokushima	3:0 ✺
Japan J2 League
22.08.26	Júbilo Iwata - Tokushima Vortis	2:1 ✺
16.08.26	Tokushima Vortis - Sagan Tosu	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 LWWLT
- Iwaki FC
Japan J League Cup
02.09.26	Giravanz Kitakyushu - Iwaki	1:0 ✺
Japan J2 League
29.08.26	Iwaki - Albirex Niigata	2:3 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
26.08.26	Iwaki - Oita Trinita	2:0 AET ✺
Japan J2 League
22.08.26	Oita Trinita - Iwaki	4:1 ✺
15.08.26	Fujieda MYFC - Iwaki	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 J3 League
07.06.26	Tokushima Vortis - Iwaki	2:0
Japan J2 League
26.10.25	Tokushima Vortis - Iwaki	0:1
02.03.25	Iwaki - Tokushima Vortis	1:1
22.09.24	Tokushima Vortis - Iwaki	0:1
26.05.24	Iwaki - Tokushima Vortis	1:1
10.09.23	Tokushima Vortis - Iwaki	2:0
Japan Emperors Cup
07.06.23	Tokushima Vortis - Iwaki	2:1 ET

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