Match Info

Liga MX Women - Clausura - Round 11

Date: 12 March 2026, Thursday

Location: Estadio Nemesio Díez (Toluca)

Referee: Lopez F. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	ViX Gratis, VIX+
South-america	ViX Latin America


	Toluca		UNAM

	1	X	2
	1.5	4.15	4.75
	1.6	4.3	4.89
	1.59	4.25	4.87	Watch
	1.53	3.8	4.6
	1.56	4	4.77	Watch
	1.52	4.33	5.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.55 ↑ (1.51)	4.14 ↑ (3.98)	4.91 ↓ (5.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Toluca
59.2%

Draw
22.2%

UNAM
18.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.8%

22.7%

17.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.6%

22%

17%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Toluca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

UNAM has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for UNAM than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

Toluca - UNAM Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1 - UNAM (2.05) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. UNAM (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Martinez V. (G) 10. Cuevas B. 5. Erceg A. 16. Fernandez L. 17. Jakobsson S. 99. Le Sommer E. 2. Martinez K. 7. Peraza C. (C) 15. Ramirez M. 25. Robert F. 4. Rodriguez Perez Y.	1. Toledo W. (G) 11. Bolanos N. 13. Chavero P. 14. Davila J. 28. Flores S. 15. Gaynor C. 16. Guerrero A. 23. Hernandez D. 12. Hix A. 7. Ribeiro S. (C) 10. Torres C.
Substitutes
14. Blackwood D. 23. Diaz B. 8. Fernandez K. 11. Guatemala D. 1. Meza Acosta A. L. (G) 27. Munoz B. A. H. 29. Pavi M. 9. Roman M. 21. Valadez N.	17. Aguirre Guillemin A. 22. Becerril K. 18. Bonilla W. 21. Delgado F. 24. Diaz N. 6. Dorantes A. 30. Gonzalez M. 26. Huerta A. 20. Lopez J. (G) 3. Mendoza A.
Coaches
Lair P.	Medina R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
25', Chavero P. 🟨,
39', 0 - 1, Ribeiro S. ⚽,
43', Guerrero A. 🟨,
2nd Half (4 - 1)
50', Cuevas B. 🟨,
57', Rodriguez Perez Y. ↓, Blackwood D. ↑,
58', Peraza C. ↓, Fernandez K. ↑,
58', Ramirez M. ↓, Diaz B. ↑,
58', Bolanos N. ↓, Gonzalez M. ↑,
60', 1 - 1, Fernandez K. ⚽,
67', Torres C. ↓, Diaz N. ↑,
67', Hix A. ↓, Huerta A. ↑,
67', Flores S. ↓, Bonilla W. ↑,
69', 2 - 1, Fernandez K. ⚽,
73', 3 - 1, Le Sommer E. ⚽,
73', Robert F. ↓, Pavi M. ↑,
75', 3 - 2, Gonzalez M. ⚽,
75', Guerrero A. ↓, Mendoza A. ↑,
85', Jakobsson S. ↓, Roman M. ↑,
87', 4 - 2, Diaz B. ⚽,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX Women (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX Women (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 1.

Toluca is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

UNAM has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Toluca is seen as the favorite.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 4 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 16:25. (average 1:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Toluca won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 10:13. (average 1.3:1.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Toluca Women
Mexican Liga MX Women
20.02.26	Santos Laguna - Toluca	0:1 ✺
16.02.26	Toluca - Pachuca	1:1 ✺
09.02.26	Monterrey - Toluca	2:0 ✺
04.02.26	Toluca - Atlético San Luis	4:0 ✺
30.01.26	Toluca - Juárez	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 WTLWW
- UNAM Pumas Women
Mexican Liga MX Women
20.02.26	UNAM - Tigres UANL	0:2 ✺
14.02.26	Juárez - UNAM	1:1 ✺
09.02.26	UNAM - Chivas Guadalajara	1:0 ✺
05.02.26	Atlas - UNAM	4:1 ✺
01.02.26	Club America - UNAM	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LTWLL

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga MX Women
06.09.25	UNAM - Toluca	1:2
31.01.25	UNAM - Toluca	3:0
19.07.24	Toluca - UNAM	1:2
17.01.24	Toluca - UNAM	2:2
16.09.23	UNAM - Toluca	5:1
06.03.23	Toluca - UNAM	0:0
23.07.22	UNAM - Toluca	1:2

Toluca - UNAM: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide