Match Info

Liga MX Women - Apertura - Round 7

Date: 14 September 2026, Monday

Location: Estadio Nemesio Díez (Toluca)

Referee: Guzman Y. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	ViX Gratis, VIX
South-america	ViX Latin America


	Toluca		Tijuana

	1	X	2
	1.38	4.80	5.50
	1.40	4.50	5.60
	1.35	5.42	8.58
	1.5	4.62	5.34	Watch
	1.30	5.35	8.45
	1.37	5.21	6.86	Watch
	1.38	4.90	5.80
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.38 ↓ (1.45)	4.97 ↑ (4.3)	6.59 ↑ (5.94)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Toluca
67.2%

Draw
18.7%

Tijuana
14.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.2%

21.3%

15.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.1%

20.1%

14.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Toluca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

Tijuana has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tijuana than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

Toluca - Tijuana Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Martinez V. (G) 4. Rodriguez Perez Y. 2. Martinez K. 24. Veje K. 14. Blackwood D. 25. Robert F. 23. Diaz B. 6. Henry A. (C) 29. Pavi M. 10. Cuevas B. 9. Le Sommer E.	78. Del Real B. (G) 14. Gonzalez V. 3. Enrigue J. 4. Ojeda D. 21. Moran L. 20. Carrandi D. 17. Motau A. (C) 27. Parra L. 13. Sandoval Trejo D. G. 10. Hancar K. 18. Carter T.
Substitutes
7. Espinosa D. 5. Franco Y. 28. Gonzalez Diaz Barreiro S. 11. Guatemala D. 17. Jakobsson S. 13. Lopez V. 1. Lozoya C. (G) 59. Monroy F. 15. Ramirez M. 22. Vazquez S.	43. Alba E. (G) 22. Bautista E. 52. Caudillo D. 2. Diaz K. 11. Fuentes D. 7. Garcia J. 6. Ibarra F. 8. Marroquin A. M. 32. Rojo N. 9. Surovtseva M.
Coaches
Toril A.	Samayoa F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
6', 1 - 0, Del Real B. (Own goal),
10', 2 - 0, Le Sommer E. ⚽, Pavi M. (A),
24', 3 - 0, Pavi M. ⚽,
38', Cuevas B. 🟨,
45+5', Parra L. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Parra L. ↓, Marroquin A. M. ↑,
51', 4 - 0, Pavi M. ⚽, Le Sommer E. (A),
55', Robert F. ↓, Monroy F. ↑,
55', Pavi M. ↓, Jakobsson S. ↑,
60', Monroy F. 🟨,
69', Gonzalez V. ↓, Ibarra F. ↑,
70', Carrandi D. ↓, Rojo N. ↑,
70', Hancar K. ↓, Surovtseva M. ↑,
70', Carter T. ↓, Fuentes D. ↑,
72', Diaz B. ↓, Franco Y. ↑,
79', Veje K. ↓, Gonzalez Diaz Barreiro S. ↑,
79', Cuevas B. ↓, Ramirez M. ↑,
81', 5 - 0, Jakobsson S. ⚽, Franco Y. (A),
83', Rodriguez Perez Y. 🟨,
87', 6 - 0, Le Sommer E. ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX Women (Apertura ~ Play Offs: ) and 7).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 3.

Toluca is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Tijuana's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Toluca is the team to beat.

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 9 matches, drew 1 match, lost 8 matches, and goals 28:29. (average 1.6:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Toluca won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 20:15. (average 2.2:1.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Toluca Women
Mexican Liga MX Women
05.09.26	Monterrey - Toluca	5:1 ✺
28.08.26	Toluca - Club León	1:0 ✺
24.08.26	Atlante - Toluca	1:2 ✺
17.08.26	Toluca - Atlas	1:1 ✺
10.08.26	Toluca - Juárez	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 LWWTW
- Club Tijuana Women
Mexican Liga MX Women
05.09.26	Tijuana - Pachuca	3:1 ✺
30.08.26	Club America - Tijuana	3:1 ✺
24.08.26	Atlas - Tijuana	2:0 ✺
15.08.26	Tijuana - Necaxa	5:1 ✺
09.08.26	Atlético San Luis - Tijuana	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 WLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga MX Women
05.01.26	Toluca - Tijuana	5:3
24.07.25	Tijuana - Toluca	1:3
17.01.25	Tijuana - Toluca	3:1
06.08.24	Toluca - Tijuana	2:4
29.04.24	Toluca - Tijuana	2:1
20.08.23	Tijuana - Toluca	3:0
09.01.23	Toluca - Tijuana	0:1

Toluca - Tijuana: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide