Match Info

USA: MLS

Date: 4 May 2024, Saturday

Location: BMO Field (Toronto, ON)

Referee: Lauziere P. (Can)


	Toronto FC		FC Dallas

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.5	3.4	Watch
	2.1	3.3	3.3
	2.1	3.6	3.5	Watch
	2.25	3.35	3.35
	2.16	3.53	3.49
	2.1	3.4	3.3
	2.14	3.5	3.34	Watch
	2.11	3.4	3.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.14 ↑ (1.97)	3.45 ↓ (3.57)	3.37 ↓ (3.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Toronto FC
44.4%

Draw
27.5%

FC Dallas
28.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.7%

26.3%

26%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.2%

23.3%

29.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Toronto FC has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

FC Dallas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toronto FC than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for FC Dallas than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
57.1%	42.9%	0%

Toronto FC - FC Dallas Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Toronto will win (votes: 4 - 57.1%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 42.9%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Johnson S. (G) 15. Gomis N. 5. Long K. 28. Petretta R. 10. Bernardeschi F. 20. Flores D. 14. Coello A. 16. Spicer T. 11. Etienne D. 21. Osorio J. (C) 99. Owusu P.	30. Paes M. (G) 25. Ibeagha S. 17. Nkosi Tafari 29. Junqua S. 22. Twumasi E. 18. Fraser L. 6. Delgado P. 4. Farfan M. 77. Kamungo B. 7. Arriola P. (C) 9. Musa P.
Substitutes
73. Batiz J. 19. Franklin K. 90. Gavran L. (G) 29. Kerr D. 8. Longstaff M. 6. Mabika A. 12. Mailula C. 17. Rosted S. 47. Thompson K.	31. Ansah E. 23. Farrington L. 10. Ferreira J. 3. Gonzalez O. 14. Illarramendi A. 1. Maurer J. (G) 16. Ntsabeleng T. 12. Sainte C. F. 11. Sealy D.
Coaches
Herdman J.	Estevez N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
9', Musa P. 🟨,
17', Petretta R. ↓, Rosted S. ↑,
45+3', Bernardeschi F. (Pen),
45+3', 1 - 0, Bernardeschi F. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Arriola P. ↓, Ferreira J. ↑,
52', 2 - 0, Bernardeschi F. ⚽, Osorio J. (A),
55', Kamungo B. ↓, Ntsabeleng T. ↑,
55', Delgado P. ↓, Illarramendi A. ↑,
64', Coello A. ↓, Longstaff M. ↑,
65', Etienne D. ↓, Franklin K. ↑,
67', Twumasi E. 🟨,
69', Farfan M. ↓, Ansah E. ↑,
72', Ntsabeleng T. ↓, Sealy D. ↑,
72', Gomis N. 🟨,
78', Owusu P. ↓, Kerr D. ↑,
82', 3 - 0, Longstaff M. ⚽, Bernardeschi F. (A),
87', 3 - 1, Junqua S. ⚽, Ferreira J. (A), Sealy D. (A2)
90+6', Rosted S. 🟨,

Preview

This match will be played by one of a leader and an outsider (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 13).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Toronto won 1.

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Toronto will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Toronto: Insigne L. (Injury) Laryea R. (Injury) Servania B. (Injury)

There will not play in Dallas: Geovane Jesus (Injury) Pomykal P. (Injury) Velasco A. (Injury)

Last 8 head-to-head matches Toronto won 1 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 6-12.

Including matches at home between the teams Toronto won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Toronto FC
MLS
27.04.24	Orlando City - Toronto FC	1:2 ✺
20.04.24	Toronto FC - New England Revolution	1:0 ✺
13.04.24	Charlotte - Toronto FC	3:2 ✺
06.04.24	Vancouver Whitecaps - Toronto FC	4:0 ✺
30.03.24	Toronto FC - Sporting Kansas City	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.6 WWLLL
- FC Dallas
MLS
27.04.24	FC Dallas - Houston Dynamo	2:0 ✺
20.04.24	Colorado Rapids - FC Dallas	2:1 ✺
13.04.24	FC Dallas - Seattle Sounders	0:0 ✺
06.04.24	St. Louis City - FC Dallas	0:0 ✺
30.03.24	Austin FC - FC Dallas	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 WLTTL

Latest Head to Head

MLS
26.02.22	FC Dallas - Toronto FC	1:1
22.06.19	FC Dallas - Toronto FC	3:0
25.05.18	Toronto FC - FC Dallas	0:1
01.07.17	FC Dallas - Toronto FC	3:1
07.05.16	Toronto FC - FC Dallas	1:0
18.04.15	FC Dallas - Toronto FC	3:2
19.04.14	FC Dallas - Toronto FC	2:1

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