Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 4 - Round 16

Date: 4 January 2026, Sunday


	Touring KE		Derio

	1	X	2
	2.3	2.8	2.95
	2.32	2.92	2.98
	2.39	3.12	2.87	Watch
	2.45	2.9	2.8
	2.48	2.95	2.7
	2.45	3.1	2.71
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.4 ↑ (1.94)	2.97 ↓ (3.13)	2.84 ↓ (3.77)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Touring KE
37.7%

Draw
30.5%

Derio
31.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.8%

29%

24.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.3%

27.5%

22.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Touring KE has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Touring KE's form might have worsened.

Derio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Derio's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Touring KE than the current prediction. (+11.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Touring KE, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Derio than the current prediction. (-9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Derio, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Touring KE - Derio Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
1', 1 - 0, Ortiz J. ⚽,
16', 2 - 0, Iriondo A. ⚽,
35', 3 - 0, Zabala O. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
56', 3 - 1, ⚽,
63', 3 - 2, ⚽,
75', 4 - 2, ⚽,
79', 5 - 2, ⚽,
85', 🟥,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Tercera RFEF ~ Group 4 (Play Offs: ) and 7).

Touring is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Derio has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Touring is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Touring won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:1. (average 1.3:0.3).

Including home match between the teams, Touring won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Derio	5	3	2	0	7:2	5	11
6	Touring KE	5	2	2	1	7:5	2	8

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Touring KE
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
20.12.25	Zarautz KE - Touring KE	1:2 ✺
13.12.25	Alavés C - Touring KE	0:0 ✺
06.12.25	Touring KE - Aurrerá de Vitoria	0:0 ✺
22.11.25	Leioa - Touring KE	0:3 ✺
15.11.25	Touring KE - Eibar C	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 WTTWW
- CD Derio
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
20.12.25	Derio - Alavés C	2:3 ✺
13.12.25	Aurrerá de Vitoria - Derio	1:1 ✺
07.12.25	Derio - Leioa	1:0 ✺
22.11.25	Eibar C - Derio	1:1 ✺
15.11.25	Derio - Añorga	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 LTWTW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
15.02.25	Derio - Touring KE	0:2
06.10.24	Touring KE - Derio	0:1
16.03.24	Derio - Touring KE	0:2

Touring KE - Derio: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide