Match Info

Division 1 - Round 28

Date: 22 August 2025, Friday

Location: Markets Field (Limerick)

Where to Watch on TV:


Ireland	LOI TV


	Treaty United		Dundalk

	1	X	2
	3.9	3.4	1.75
	4.95	3.8	1.6
	5.45	4	1.64
	25.00	18.55	1.00	Watch
	4	3.3	1.8
	4.64	4.02	1.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	7.99 ↑ (4.68)	6.18 ↑ (3.52)	1.57 ↓ (1.74)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Treaty United
13.6%

Draw
17.5%

Dundalk
68.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

19.9%

26.5%

53.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

19.5%

26%

54.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Treaty United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Treaty United's form might have worsened.

Dundalk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+15.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Dundalk's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Treaty United than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Treaty United, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Dundalk than the current prediction. (-14.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Dundalk, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	0%	75%

Treaty United - Dundalk Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Treaty United will win (votes: 1 - 25%). Dundalk will win (votes: 3 - 75%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Treaty United (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.75 - Dundalk (1.83) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Treaty United (votes: 1 - 50%). Dundalk (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Chambers C. (G) 20. O'Connor E. 27. Lynch R. 3. Lynch B. 11. Byrne M. 8. Conroy C. 5. Devitt L. 25. Walsh M. (C) 9. Ferry P. 18. Wilson C. 30. Murphy M.	1. Minogue E. (G) 2. O'Keeffe C. 4. Animasahun M. 15. Leonard V. 31. Wilson J. 16. Kenny E. 7. Horgan D. (C) 8. Groome H. 6. Dervin A. 27. McDaid D. 11. Arubi G.
Substitutes
2. Boevi R. 32. Boylan M. (G) 23. Doherty F. 16. Hanson J. 6. Healy S. 28. Horgan C. 26. Lawlor R. 33. Martin E. 99. Vrljicak T.	18. Cherrie P. (G) 9. Ebbe D. 14. Garbett N. 24. Molloy T. 23. Paraschiv A. 19. Spaight S. 26. Tracey S. 29. Vaughan R. 17. Ward K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 4)
10', 0 - 1, Horgan D. ⚽,
20', 0 - 2, Horgan D. ⚽,
31', 0 - 3, Arubi G. ⚽,
37', O'Keeffe C. 🟨,
39', 0 - 4, O'Connor E. (Own goal),
45+3', Wilson C. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
46', O'Connor E. ↓, Doherty F. ↑,
46', Murphy M. ↓, Horgan C. ↑,
49', Conroy C. 🟨,
65', 0 - 5, Kenny E. ⚽,
66', McDaid D. ↓, Ebbe D. ↑,
66', Groome H. ↓, Ward K. ↑,
66', Arubi G. ↓, Vaughan R. ↑,
66', Kenny E. ↓, Garbett N. ↑,
70', 🟨,
73', Ferry P. ↓, Hanson J. ↑,
73', Conroy C. ↓, Healy S. ↑,
77', 0 - 6, Vaughan R. ⚽,
79', O'Keeffe C. ↓, Paraschiv A. ↑,
82', Chambers C. 🟨,
83', 0 - 7, Horgan D. (Pen),
85', Wilson C. ↓, Boevi R. ↑,

Preview

Recent form of Treaty United has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Dundalk is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Recently, Dundalk has had a series of home games.

In this match, Dundalk is a strong favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Treaty United won 0 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:5. (average 1:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Treaty United won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2. (average 0.5:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Treaty United
Irish Division 1
09.08.25	Longford Town - Treaty United	2:0 ✺
04.08.25	Treaty United - Kerry	1:1 ✺
01.08.25	Bray Wanderers - Treaty United	3:2 ✺
25.07.25	Athlone Town - Treaty United	2:2 ✺
Irish FAI Cup
18.07.25	Treaty United - Derry City	1:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LTLTL
- Dundalk FC
Irish Division 1
08.08.25	Dundalk - Athlone Town	6:1 ✺
04.08.25	Dundalk - Longford Town	4:1 ✺
01.08.25	University College Dublin - Dundalk	0:1 ✺
25.07.25	Dundalk - Wexford	3:2 ✺
Irish FAI Cup
18.07.25	Dundalk - Sligo Rovers	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Irish Division 1
20.06.25	Dundalk - Treaty United	1:1
18.04.25	Treaty United - Dundalk	1:1
07.03.25	Dundalk - Treaty United	2:2
Irish FAI Cup
25.07.21	Treaty United - Dundalk	0:1 ET

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