Match Info

Division 1 - Round 24

Date: 25 July 2025, Friday

Location: Oriel Park (Dundalk)

Where to Watch on TV:


Ireland	LOI TV


	Dundalk		Wexford

	1	X	2
	1.31	4.75	7.25
	1.44	4.35	5.9
	1.5	4.48	5.97
	1.47	4.38	6.05	Watch
	1.33	4.6	8.5
	1.44	4.33	6.35
	1.35	4.5	8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.41 ↑ (1.35)	4.48 ↓ (4.63)	6.86 ↓ (7.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Dundalk
65.9%

Draw
20.6%

Wexford
13.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

68.5%

19.9%

11.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

72.7%

18.8%

10.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Dundalk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

Wexford has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dundalk than the current prediction. (+6.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Dundalk, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Wexford than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Dundalk - Wexford Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -2 - Dundalk (2.77) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Dundalk will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Dundalk will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Dundalk (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Minogue E. (G) 2. O'Keeffe C. 15. Leonard V. 8. Groome H. 31. Wilson J. 6. Dervin A. 26. Tracey S. 27. McDaid D. 16. Kenny E. 7. Horgan D. (C) 11. Arubi G.	20. Martin P. (G) 28. McCarthy M. 6. Larkin D. 5. McCourt R. 3. Crawford J. 31. O'Brien M. 7. Rowe M. 15. Harnett K. 80. McCormack B. 29. Oluwabiyi A. 10. Dobbs A. (C)
Substitutes
18. Cherrie P. (G) 9. Ebbe D. 4. Molloy T. 12. Mulligan L. 23. Paraschiv A. 20. Safaei S. (G) 19. Spaight S. . Vaughan R. 17. Ward K.	16. Abada Z. 24. Browne C. 25. Butler R. 13. Flynn C. 23. Haris M. 8. Levingston D. 46. Manning P. 1. Moody A. (G) 17. Wasilewski F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
3', 1 - 0, Arubi G. ⚽,
5', Harnett K. 🟨,
7', Dervin A. 🟨,
20', O'Brien M. 🟨,
30', 2 - 0, Arubi G. ⚽,
31', 🟨,
45+1', Groome H. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Harnett K. ↓, Haris M. ↑,
50', 2 - 1, Haris M. ⚽,
56', Kenny E. ↓, Ward K. ↑,
56', Groome H. ↓, Paraschiv A. ↑,
58', O'Brien M. ↓, Levingston D. ↑,
63', 3 - 1, Ward K. ⚽,
65', Oluwabiyi A. ↓, Wasilewski F. ↑,
65', Crawford J. ↓, Browne C. ↑,
71', Dobbs A. ↓, Flynn C. ↑,
79', Horgan D. ↓, Vaughan R. ↑,
79', Arubi G. ↓, Ebbe D. ↑,
85', 🟨,
87', 3 - 2, Rowe M. ⚽,
90+1', Tracey S. ↓, Mulligan L. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Dundalk won 5.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Wexford may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Dundalk is the obvious favorite.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Dundalk won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 20:8. (average 2.5:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Dundalk won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 11:3. (average 2.8:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Dundalk FC
Irish FAI Cup
18.07.25	Dundalk - Sligo Rovers	0:2 ✺
Club Friendly
14.07.25	Glebe North - Dundalk	0:6 ✺
Irish Division 1
11.07.25	Bray Wanderers - Dundalk	2:0 ✺
04.07.25	Kerry - Dundalk	0:4 ✺
27.06.25	Dundalk - Cobh Ramblers	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LWLWW
- Wexford FC
Irish FAI Cup
18.07.25	Shamrock Rovers - Wexford	4:0 ✺
Irish Division 1
11.07.25	Wexford - Athlone Town	0:0 ✺
04.07.25	Bray Wanderers - Wexford	1:0 ✺
27.06.25	Wexford - Kerry	4:3 ✺
23.06.25	Treaty United - Wexford	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LTLWT

Latest Head to Head

Irish Division 1
30.05.25	Wexford - Dundalk	2:3
28.03.25	Dundalk - Wexford	3:0
Club Friendly
07.02.23	Dundalk - Wexford	3:1
Irish FAI Cup
26.08.22	Wexford - Dundalk	2:3 ET
Irish Premier Division
26.08.16	Wexford - Dundalk	0:1
29.05.16	Dundalk - Wexford	3:2
14.03.16	Wexford - Dundalk	1:2

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