Match Info

Division 1 - Round 22

Date: 3 July 2026, Friday

Location: Markets Field (Limerick)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	SportsEngine Play
World	LOI TV


	Treaty United		Kerry

	1	X	2
	2.40	3.10	2.60
	2.48	3.15	2.55
	2.56	3.30	2.93
	2.46	3.11	2.79	Watch
	2.50	3.10	2.90
	2.51	3.25	2.75
	2.44	3.05	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.48 ↓ (2.54)	3.15 ↑ (3)	2.75 ↓ (2.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Treaty United
37.2%

Draw
29.3%

Kerry
33.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.2%

30.7%

33.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.1%

31.5%

32.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Treaty United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

Kerry has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Treaty United than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kerry than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	66.7%	16.7%

Treaty United - Kerry Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Treaty United will win (votes: 1 - 20%). Kerry will win (votes: 1 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 60%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Brady J. (G) 29. Foley K. 27. Lynch R. 20. Nwankwo D. 16. Yoro E. 11. Byrne M. 6. Healy S. 31. Manning R. 23. Doherty F. 9. Curtis C. 30. Murphy M.	1. Connor M. (G) 3. O'Connell S. 18. Aladesanusi S. 14. Hakkinen J. 28. Brookwell N. (C) 24. Borden V. 17. Brosnan C. 23. Perez R. 29. Lee E. 10. Murphy C. 11. Okwute D.
Substitutes
8. Conroy C. 19. Cunningham B. 15. Feeney B. 21. Fitzpatrick K. (G) 10. Lawlor R. 14. Lee B. 3. Lynch B. 18. Oyenuga J. 36. Whelan C.	41. Bargary C. 26. Britton M. 35. Healy A. 40. Mangan H. (G) 37. McCormack C. 7. McGrath S. 21. Palmer L. 32. Stack S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
6', Aladesanusi S. 🟨,
35', Murphy M. 🟨,
36', 0 - 1, Murphy C. (Penalty Awarded),
37', Yoro E. 🟨,
40', Okwute D. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Yoro E. ↓, Feeney B. ↑,
48', Connor M. 🟥,
49', Perez R. ↓, Mangan H. ↑,
57', Okwute D. ↓, Palmer L. ↑,
57', Brosnan C. ↓, Bargary C. ↑,
64', Byrne M. ↓, Whelan C. ↑,
64', Manning R. ↓, Oyenuga J. ↑,
64', Doherty F. ↓, Lynch B. ↑,
67', 1 - 1, Oyenuga J. ⚽,
70', Murphy C. 🟨,
82', Healy S. ↓, Lawlor R. ↑,
85', 2 - 1, Lynch R. ⚽,
88', Aladesanusi S. ↓, Healy A. ↑,
89', Borden V. ↓, Britton M. ↑,
90+4', Bargary C. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Treaty United won 1.

Treaty United is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Kerry is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Treaty United won 6 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 25:15. (average 1.7:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Treaty United won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 13:5. (average 1.9:0.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Kerry	34	13	9	12	42:40	2	48
9	Treaty United	34	9	9	16	33:52	-19	36

Last Results with these Odds

Kerry - the odds 2.78 are the expected chance of winning is 33.1%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Treaty United
Irish Division 1
26.06.26	Wexford - Treaty United	0:0 ✺
19.06.26	Cork City - Treaty United	4:0 ✺
12.06.26	Treaty United - Bray Wanderers	2:2 ✺
29.05.26	Longford Town - Treaty United	3:1 ✺
25.05.26	Treaty United - Cork City	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 TLTLL
- Kerry FC Ireland
Irish Division 1
26.06.26	Kerry - Longford Town	2:1 ✺
19.06.26	University College Dublin - Kerry	0:1 ✺
12.06.26	Kerry - Athlone Town	1:0 ✺
29.05.26	Cobh Ramblers - Kerry	2:0 ✺
22.05.26	Kerry - Bray Wanderers	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.3 WWWLT

Latest Head to Head

Irish Division 1
17.04.26	Kerry - Treaty United	1:1
06.03.26	Treaty United - Kerry	2:2
Club Friendly
13.01.26	Kerry - Treaty United	2:4
Irish Division 1
26.09.25	Kerry - Treaty United	1:1
04.08.25	Treaty United - Kerry	1:1
09.05.25	Kerry - Treaty United	1:0
04.04.25	Treaty United - Kerry	3:0

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