Match Info

Liga 3 - Promotion Group - Round 7

Date: 22 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio do Clube Desportivo Trofense (Trofa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Trofense		Académica Coimbra

	1	X	2
	2.78	2.98	2.38
	2.94	3.22	2.51
	2.89	3.19	2.44	Watch
	2.75	3	2.4
	2.77	3.02	2.38
	2.75	3	2.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.81 ↓ (3.36)	3.07 ↑ (3.03)	2.42 ↑ (2.16)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Trofense
32.5%

Draw
29.8%

Académica Coimbra
37.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.3%

30.2%

42.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.5%

29.3%

43.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Trofense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Trofense's performance.

Académica Coimbra has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Trofense than the current prediction. (-6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Trofense that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Académica Coimbra than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Académica Coimbra could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Trofense - Académica Coimbra Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Silva N. (G) 4. Basto H. 19. Diarra M. 22. Duarte E. 26. Lobo G. 89. Nuninho (C) 2. Oliveira J. 8. Reko Silva 23. Ribeiro Gomes D. M. 78. Ruca 30. Welisson	98. Alves C. (G) 28. Cascavel 18. Cuba 11. Farias E. 15. Kaka 17. Marcos Paulo 6. Montez A. 4. Silva G. 5. Silva L. (C) 93. Souza B. 3. Teixeira R.
Substitutes
14. Assis Cardoso R. H. 6. Daniel J. 18. Diagne O. 9. Hachadi K. 11. Paciencia V. 77. Roka 44. Saldanha F. 12. Teopisto (G) 20. Vieira A.	2. Baixinho M. 9. Barbosa N. 21. Candeias D. 12. Gabriel Passos 8. Jesus P. 1. Macedo N. (G) 7. Tiago Andre 14. Triana C. 19. Xavier

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
10', 1 - 0, Diarra M. ⚽, Welisson (A),
15', Kaka 🟨,
32', 1 - 1, Cascavel ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Kaka ↓, Tiago Andre ↑,
59', Lobo G. ↓, Diagne O. ↑,
63', Cuba ↓, Candeias D. ↑,
63', Souza B. ↓, Triana C. ↑,
73', Oliveira J. ↓, Hachadi K. ↑,
76', Cascavel ↓, Jesus P. ↑,
76', Marcos Paulo ↓, Xavier ↑,
77', Hachadi K. 🟨,
79', Welisson 🟨,
83', 1 - 2, Xavier ⚽,
84', Duarte E. ↓, Roka ↑,
85', Welisson ↓, Paciencia V. ↑,
90+2', 🟨,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 7 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Portugal 2).

Trofense has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Académica is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Trofense may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Trofense won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 3:3. (average 1:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Trofense won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2. (average 1:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Académica Coimbra - the odds 2.16 are the expected chance of winning is 42.46%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Trofense
Portuguese Liga 3
15.03.26	Vitoria Guimarães B - Trofense	1:2 ✺
08.03.26	Amarante - Trofense	1:0 ✺
27.02.26	Trofense - Mafra	1:1 ✺
21.02.26	Varzim - Trofense	2:0 ✺
14.02.26	Trofense - União de Santarém	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 WLTLL
- Académica Coimbra
Portuguese Liga 3
15.03.26	Académica Coimbra - Mafra	2:0 ✺
07.03.26	Varzim - Académica Coimbra	0:1 ✺
28.02.26	Académica Coimbra - União de Santarém	3:1 ✺
21.02.26	Belenenses - Académica Coimbra	3:2 ✺
06.02.26	Académica Coimbra - Vitoria Guimarães B	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
08.05.22	Trofense - Académica Coimbra	2:1
28.12.21	Académica Coimbra - Trofense	1:1
Taça de Portugal
21.11.15	Trofense - Académica Coimbra	0:1 penalties

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