Match Info

Liga 3 - Promotion Group - Round 5

Date: 8 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Amarante Stadium (Amarante)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Amarante		Trofense

	1	X	2
	2.4	2.82	2.98
	2.6	2.8	3.42
	2.49	2.78	3.24	Watch
	2.4	2.63	3.1
	2.45	2.62	3.21
	2.45	2.9	3.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.47 ↓ (2.72)	2.76 ↓ (2.79)	3.17 ↑ (2.68)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Amarante
37.4%

Draw
33.4%

Trofense
29.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.4%

32.6%

34%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.5%

32.5%

33.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Amarante has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

Trofense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Amarante than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Trofense than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

Amarante - Trofense Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Duarte M. (G) 3. Mendes F. 4. Filipe J. (C) 22. Vivas S. 80. Ventura 5. Innusah H. 6. Almeida F. 28. Pedro R. 8. Zangre A. 99. Roger 23. Saint-Louis J.	13. Silva N. (C) 2. Oliveira J. 4. Basto H. 5. Cunha G. 29. Joel 23. Ribeiro Gomes D. M. 14. Assis Cardoso R. H. 78. Ruca 10. Feliz 19. Diarra M. 26. Lobo G.
Substitutes
88. Aguiar E. 30. Antunes Tiago C. J. 7. Conceicao M. 13. Flores R. (G) 58. Meireles A. 20. Moreno Tavares Cunha M. 2. Ribeiro O. 10. Rodrigues D.	6. Daniel J. 18. Diagne O. 9. Hachadi K. 79. Lopes L. 11. Paciencia V. 8. Reko Silva 44. Saldanha F. 12. Teopisto (G) 30. Welisson

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
9', Joel ↓, Saldanha F. ↑,
39', Assis Cardoso R. H. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Assis Cardoso R. H. ↓, Daniel J. ↑,
60', Oliveira J. ↓, Lopes L. ↑,
63', Almeida F. ↓, Rodrigues D. ↑,
63', Roger ↓, Arome ↑,
66', Daniel J. 🟨,
68', Lopes L. 🟨,
69', 🟨,
71', (Penalty Awarded),
75', Lobo G. 🟨,
79', Feliz ↓, Paciencia V. ↑,
79', Diarra M. ↓, Hachadi K. ↑,
90+1', Zangre A. ↓, Meireles A. ↑,
90+1', Innusah H. ↓, Moreno Tavares Cunha M. ↑,
90+3', 1 - 0, Filipe J. ⚽,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 5 and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Amarante won 2.

Recent performances by Amarante have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Trofense's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Trofense may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Amarante won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:4. (average 0.7:0.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Amarante won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:2. (average 0.8:0.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Amarante FC
Portuguese Liga 3
01.03.26	Belenenses - Amarante	1:2 ✺
21.02.26	Amarante - Mafra	1:0 ✺
07.02.26	Varzim - Amarante	2:1 ✺
25.01.26	Amarante - Trofense	1:1 ✺
18.01.26	Paredes - Amarante	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.9 WWLTT
- CD Trofense
Portuguese Liga 3
27.02.26	Trofense - Mafra	1:1 ✺
21.02.26	Varzim - Trofense	2:0 ✺
14.02.26	Trofense - União de Santarém	1:2 ✺
07.02.26	Belenenses - Trofense	0:0 ✺
25.01.26	Amarante - Trofense	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 TLLTT

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
25.01.26	Amarante - Trofense	1:1
02.11.25	Trofense - Amarante	0:1
10.11.24	Trofense - Amarante	1:0
11.08.24	Amarante - Trofense	1:0
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
14.03.21	Trofense - Amarante	1:0
20.12.20	Amarante - Trofense	0:0
22.12.19	Amarante - Trofense	0:0

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