Match Info

Liga MX Women - Apertura - Round 15

Date: 11 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Olímpico Universitario (Mexico City)

Referee: Perez Comellas M. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, ViX Gratis, VIX+
South-america	ViX Latin America


	UNAM		Atlas

	1	X	2
	1.39	4.55	5.7
	1.4	5.37	6.2
	1.40	5.00	6.14	Watch
	1.44	4.45	6.68	Watch
	1.57	3.98	4.76
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.44 ↓ (1.49)	4.67 ↑ (4.23)	5.9 ↑ (5.11)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

UNAM
64.4%

Draw
19.9%

Atlas
15.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.8%

21.4%

17.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.9%

20.4%

18.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

UNAM has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

Atlas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for UNAM than the current prediction. (-6.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with UNAM that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlas than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

UNAM - Atlas Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1 - Atlas (2.13) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Atlas (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Toledo W. (G) 11. Bolanos N. 13. Chavero P. 14. Davila J. 28. Flores S. 25. Herrera L. 12. Hix A. 3. Mendoza A. 7. Ribeiro S. 9. Rios X. 10. Torres C.	12. Vazquez C. (G) 6. Acevedo V. 11. Ceren B. 2. Delgado D. 19. Fernandez K. 8. Huerta A. 14. Huerta R. F. T. 13. Maldonado M. 25. Meza D. 9. Munoz S. 5. Sainz M.
Substitutes
24. Acosta F. 4. Alvarado M. 22. Becerril K. 18. Bonilla W. 21. Delgado F. 30. Gonzalez M. 27. Gonzalez Vite H. K. (G) 16. Guerrero A. 2. Ramirez K. 8. Serna L.	1. Contreras K. (G) 16. Cruz D. 7. Flores K. 20. Garcia J. 17. Lopez A. 22. Nalukenge J. 3. Saravia L.
Coaches
Frigerio M.	Medina R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 3)
22', 0 - 1, Munoz S. ⚽,
42', 0 - 2, Fernandez K. ⚽,
43', 1 - 2, Ribeiro S. ⚽,
45', 1 - 3, Huerta R. F. T. ⚽,
45+2', Herrera L. ↓, Gonzalez M. ↑,
45+2', Huerta R. F. T. 🟨,
45+3', 🟨,
45+4', 2 - 3, Ribeiro S. ⚽,
45+6', Bolanos N. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Flores S. ↓, Alvarado M. ↑,
46', Torres C. ↓, Bonilla W. ↑,
46', Hix A. ↓, Acosta F. ↑,
46', Meza D. ↓, Saravia L. ↑,
52', 3 - 3, Gonzalez M. ⚽,
58', Sainz M. ↓, Cruz D. ↑,
58', Huerta A. ↓, Garcia J. ↑,
58', Fernandez K. ↓, Flores K. ↑,
79', Munoz S. ↓, Nalukenge J. ↑,
80', Mendoza A. ↓, Guerrero A. ↑,
90+6', 3 - 4, Nalukenge J. ⚽,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX Women (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, UNAM won 4.

Recent form of UNAM has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Atlas is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Recently, UNAM has had a series of away games.

In this match, UNAM is considered a favorite.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, UNAM won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 17:9. (average 1.7:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, UNAM won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 12:6. (average 2.4:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UNAM Pumas Women
Mexican Liga MX Women
05.10.25	Chivas Guadalajara - UNAM	4:3 ✺
29.09.25	UNAM - Atlético San Luis	1:2 ✺
25.09.25	Mazatlan - UNAM	0:4 ✺
19.09.25	Querétaro - UNAM	2:1 ✺
12.09.25	Tigres UANL - UNAM	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1 LLWLL
- Club Atlas Women
Mexican Liga MX Women
05.10.25	Atlas - Club León	2:4 ✺
29.09.25	Atlas - Toluca	2:2 ✺
20.09.25	Necaxa - Atlas	0:1 ✺
15.09.25	Santos Laguna - Atlas	1:2 ✺
05.09.25	Atlas - Querétaro	6:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 LTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga MX Women
03.03.25	Atlas - UNAM	0:1
07.09.24	UNAM - Atlas	4:2
08.03.24	Atlas - UNAM	0:2
22.07.23	UNAM - Atlas	4:1
17.03.23	Atlas - UNAM	1:1
21.10.22	UNAM - Atlas	3:2
18.03.22	UNAM - Atlas	0:0

UNAM - Atlas: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide