Match Info

Liga MX Women - Apertura - Round 10

Date: 6 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Olímpico Universitario (Mexico City)

Referee: Perez Comellas M. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, ViX Gratis, VIX+
South-america	ViX Latin America


	UNAM		Toluca

	1	X	2
	1.82	3.6	3.5
	1.88	3.8	3.15
	1.96	3.98	3.29
	4.36	3.37	1.82	Watch
	1.93	3.74	3.54	Watch
	2	3.45	3.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.33 ↓ (2.38)	3.66 ↑ (3.2)	3.08 ↑ (2.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

UNAM
41.8%

Draw
26.6%

Toluca
31.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.3%

28.5%

33.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.7%

28.2%

32.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

UNAM has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

Toluca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for UNAM than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

UNAM - Toluca Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Toledo W. (G) 4. Alvarado M. (C) 22. Becerril K. 11. Bolanos N. 13. Chavero P. 28. Flores S. 16. Guerrero A. 3. Mendoza A. 7. Ribeiro S. 9. Rios X. 10. Torres C.	12. Martinez V. (G) 5. Erceg A. 16. Fernandez L. 28. Henry A. (C) 99. Le Sommer E. 13. Lopez V. 2. Martinez K. 7. Peraza C. 25. Robert F. 21. Valadez N. 6. Vazquez S.
Substitutes
24. Acosta F. 29. Carmona E. 21. Delgado F. 30. Gonzalez M. 27. Gonzalez Vite H. K. (G) 25. Herrera L. 12. Hix A. 2. Ramirez K. 8. Serna L. 5. Vite C.	22. Abam M. 10. Cuevas B. 11. Guatemala D. 27. Munoz B. A. H. 26. Munoz I. 15. Ramirez M. 33. Thompson K. (G) 17. van de Sanden S. 19. Vazquez E.
Coaches
Frigerio M.	Lair P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
30', 0 - 1, Chavero P. (Own goal),
38', Torres C. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
53', 0 - 2, Le Sommer E. ⚽,
54', Henry A. 🟨,
56', Flores S. ↓, Herrera L. ↑,
56', Rios X. ↓, Gonzalez M. ↑,
56', Bolanos N. ↓, Hix A. ↑,
63', Valadez N. ↓, van de Sanden S. ↑,
63', Erceg A. ↓, Ramirez M. ↑,
72', Guerrero A. ↓, Acosta F. ↑,
77', 1 - 2, Ribeiro S. ⚽,
77', Martinez K. ↓, Guatemala D. ↑,
83', Peraza C. ↓, Munoz I. ↑,
86', Munoz I. 🟥,
90+7', 🟨,
90+7', 🟨,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX Women (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX Women (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, UNAM won 3.

Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.

UNAM might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, UNAM won 7 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 24:14. (average 1.6:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, UNAM won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:4. (average 1.6:0.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UNAM Pumas Women
Mexican Liga MX Women
01.09.25	Santos Laguna - UNAM	3:5 ✺
25.08.25	UNAM - Tijuana	1:0 ✺
17.08.25	UNAM - Club America	2:3 ✺
09.08.25	Puebla - UNAM	1:2 ✺
04.08.25	UNAM - Cruz Azul	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WWLWW
- Deportivo Toluca Women
Mexican Liga MX Women
31.08.25	Toluca - Querétaro	2:0 ✺
26.08.25	Cruz Azul - Toluca	4:3 ✺
17.08.25	Juárez - Toluca	0:0 ✺
13.08.25	Toluca - Chivas Guadalajara	2:1 ✺
09.08.25	Toluca - Club León	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 WLTWW

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga MX Women
31.01.25	UNAM - Toluca	3:0
19.07.24	Toluca - UNAM	1:2
17.01.24	Toluca - UNAM	2:2
16.09.23	UNAM - Toluca	5:1
06.03.23	Toluca - UNAM	0:0
23.07.22	UNAM - Toluca	1:2
02.05.22	Toluca - UNAM	2:3

UNAM - Toluca: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide