The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Cruz Azul 32.2%
Draw 24.4%
Toluca 43.4%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
36.8%
23.9%
39.3%
Our Initial ML Estimation
37.6%
24.4%
38.5%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Cruz Azul has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)
Toluca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cruz Azul than the current prediction. (+5.4%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Cruz Azul, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (-4.9%)
Cruz Azul - Toluca Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Villeda M. (G) 26. Torres A. 4. Sanchez T. 3. Ruth H. 11. Mendoza D. 19. Valdez V. (C) 20. Ceren B. 5. Frias A. 7. Angeles L. 9. Martinez A. 13. Garcia D.
12. Martinez V. (G) 4. Rodriguez Perez Y. 2. Martinez K. 16. Fernandez L. 13. Lopez V. 25. Robert F. 22. Vazquez S. 10. Cuevas B. (C) 14. Blackwood D. 7. Espinosa D. 9. Le Sommer E.
Substitutes
18. Cruz B. 28. Garcia A. 29. Kanu U. 14. Leon M. 8. Lomeli A. 2. Miranda V. 17. Montano Osuna M. C. 6. Rodriguez L. 12. Solis O. (G)
8. Fernandez K. 5. Franco Y. 28. Gonzalez Diaz Barreiro S. 6. Henry A. 17. Jakobsson S. 1. Lozoya C. (G) 26. Munoz I. 15. Ramirez M.
Coaches
Moreno J.
Duenas E.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 1)
5', Cuevas B. 🟨,
7', Garcia D. (Penalty Awarded),
9', 1 - 0, Ceren B. (Penalty Awarded),
15', Torres A. 🟨,
18', Ruth H. 🟨,
40', Ceren B. 🟨,
43', 1 - 1, Le Sommer E. ⚽, Robert F. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Ceren B. ↓, Lomeli A. ↑,
62', Blackwood D. ↓, Jakobsson S. ↑,
67', Frias A. ↓, Cruz B. ↑,
67', Garcia D. ↓, Kanu U. ↑,
70', Espinosa D. ↓, Henry A. ↑,
72', 1 - 2, Henry A. ⚽, Jakobsson S. (A),
72', Henry A. 🟨,
79', Torres A. ↓, Garcia A. ↑,
80', Angeles L. ↓, Rodriguez L. ↑,
80', Valdez V. 🟨,
85', Cuevas B. ↓, Munoz I. ↑,
85', Robert F. ↓, Ramirez M. ↑,
Preview
A determined lower-tier side seeks an essential result against mid-table opposition (ranked 7th and 4th in the Promotion - Liga MX Women Apertura - Playoffs).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cruz Azul won 3.
Cruz Azul has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 2 wins).
Toluca is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 3 wins).
Toluca is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.
In the last 18 head-to-head meetings, Cruz Azul has recorded 6 wins, 1 draw, and 11 losses, with a goal aggregate of 23:36 (averaging 1.3:2 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Cruz Azul against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 0 draws, and 5 losses, with 13:16 goals (averaging 1.4:1.8 per game).
Mexico
South America
Watch
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Villeda M. (G) 
Ruth H. 
Ceren B. 
Martinez A. 
Robert F. 
Blackwood D. 
Kanu U. 
Leon M. 
Jakobsson S. 
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