Match Info

Liga MX Women - Apertura - Round 8

Date: 26 August 2025, Tuesday

Location: Instalaciones La Noria Cancha 1 (Ciudad de Mexico)

Referee: Sanchez C. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, ViX Gratis, VIX+
South-america	ViX Latin America


	Cruz Azul		Toluca

	1	X	2
	2.35	3.35	2.58
	2.42	3.6	2.6
	1.53	4.04	5.70	Watch
	2.4	3.2	2.5
	2.42	3.2	2.61	Watch
	2.2	4	2.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.22 ↑ (2.07)	3.57 ↑ (3.25)	3.07 ↓ (3.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cruz Azul
42.6%

Draw
26.5%

Toluca
30.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.6%

28.4%

26.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.1%

28.1%

27.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cruz Azul has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

Toluca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cruz Azul than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

Cruz Azul - Toluca Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Toluca (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Toluca (1.94) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Toluca (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Godinez A. (G) 7. Angeles L. (C) 13. Calderon D. 28. Garcia A. 5. Gutierrez D. 10. Lemos S. 8. Lomeli A. 9. Martinez A. 2. Miranda V. 3. Robe L. 4. Rodriguez Perez Y.	33. Thompson K. (G) 16. Fernandez L. 28. Henry A. (C) 99. Le Sommer E. 13. Lopez V. 2. Martinez K. 7. Peraza C. 15. Ramirez M. 25. Robert F. 17. van de Sanden S. 6. Vazquez S.
Substitutes
14. Blackwood D. 33. Chavarin A. 15. Grimaldo N. 23. Gutierrez I. 17. Kirsch-Downs C. 16. Martinez L. 21. Martinez R. 11. Mendoza D. 60. Osorio H. 1. Villeda M. (G)	8. Cortez V. 10. Cuevas B. 11. Guatemala D. 20. Gutiérrez S. 3. Lopez J. 12. Martinez V. (G) 59. Monroy F. 27. Munoz B. A. H. 26. Munoz I.
Coaches
Testas D.	Lair P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
16', van de Sanden S. ↓, Monroy F. ↑,
20', 1 - 0, Angeles L. ⚽,
21', Le Sommer E. 🟨,
31', 1 - 1, Le Sommer E. ⚽,
40', Lopez V. 🟨,
43', Martinez K. 🟨,
45', 1 - 2, Le Sommer E. ⚽,
45+4', 2 - 2, Calderon D. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Martinez K. ↓, Lopez J. ↑,
48', 2 - 3, Le Sommer E. ⚽,
60', Gutierrez D. ↓, Gutierrez I. ↑,
60', Lomeli A. ↓, Blackwood D. ↑,
60', Garcia A. ↓, Chavarin A. ↑,
62', Peraza C. ↓, Cuevas B. ↑,
72', Monroy F. ↓, Cortez V. ↑,
81', 3 - 3, Chavarin A. ⚽,
90+1', 4 - 3, Chavarin A. ⚽,
90+3', Martinez A. ↓, Grimaldo N. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 11 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX Women (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cruz Azul won 1.

Recent performances by Cruz Azul have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Toluca is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Cruz Azul won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 11 matches, and goals 15:33. (average 0.9:2.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Cruz Azul won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 9:13. (average 1.1:1.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cruz Azul FC Women
Mexican Liga MX Women
18.08.25	Necaxa - Cruz Azul	3:3 ✺
12.08.25	Cruz Azul - Monterrey	4:0 ✺
08.08.25	Chivas Guadalajara - Cruz Azul	1:1 ✺
04.08.25	UNAM - Cruz Azul	3:1 ✺
28.07.25	Cruz Azul - Atlético San Luis	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 TWTLL
- Deportivo Toluca Women
Mexican Liga MX Women
17.08.25	Juárez - Toluca	0:0 ✺
13.08.25	Toluca - Chivas Guadalajara	2:1 ✺
09.08.25	Toluca - Club León	1:0 ✺
04.08.25	Pachuca - Toluca	1:2 ✺
24.07.25	Tijuana - Toluca	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 25.8 TWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga MX Women
13.03.25	Cruz Azul - Toluca	2:1
12.10.24	Toluca - Cruz Azul	3:1
22.04.24	Cruz Azul - Toluca	2:3
20.10.23	Toluca - Cruz Azul	3:0
06.05.23	Cruz Azul - Toluca	0:1
15.08.22	Toluca - Cruz Azul	2:0
11.04.22	Toluca - Cruz Azul	3:1

Cruz Azul - Toluca: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide