Match Info

Friendly International Women

Date: 17 April 2026, Friday

Location: Dick's Sporting Goods Park (Commerce City, CO)

Where to Watch on TV:


Japan	DAZN Japan


	USA W		Japan W

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.88	3.55	3.55
	1.93	3.75	3.53
	1.86	3.74	3.47	Watch
	1.91	3.25	3.4
	1.8	3.54	3.82	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.88 ↓ (2)	3.57 ↑ (3.23)	3.55 ↑ (3.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

USA W
48.7%

Draw
25.6%

Japan W
25.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.8%

28.3%

25.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.1%

26.9%

24.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

USA W has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

Japan W has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for USA W than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Japan W than the current prediction. (-1%)

USA W - Japan W Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Dickey C. (G) Seattle Reign 23. Fox E. Arsenal 4. Girma N. Chelsea 12. Davidson T. Gotham FC 22. Thompson G. Angel City 2. Rodman T. Washington Spirit 10. Heaps L. (C) Lyon 15. Hutton C. Bay FC 21. Thompson A. Chelsea 11. Wilson S. Portland Thorns FC 16. Lavelle R. Gotham FC	12. Hirao C. (G) Granada CF 2. Shimizu R. Liverpool 6. Koga T. Tottenham 4. Kumagai S. London City Lionesses 13. Kitagawa H. Everton 19. Tanikawa M. Bayern Munich 16. Yamamoto Y. Denver Summit 14. Hasegawa Y. (C) Manchester City 15. Fujino A. Manchester City 9. Ueki R. West Ham 7. Miyazawa H. Manchester United
Substitutes
17. Coffey S. Manchester City 20. Cooper M. Kansas City Current 13. Moultrie O. Portland Thorns FC 3. Patterson A. Houston Dash 5. Reale L. Gotham FC 6. Sams E. Angel City 19. Sears E. Racing Louisville 9. Sentnor A. Kansas City Current 8. Shaw J. Gotham FC 24. Tullis-Joyce P. (G) Manchester United 25. Wesley K. San Diego Wave 7. Yohannes L. Lyon	22. Chiba R. Eintracht Frankfurt 17. Hamano M. Tottenham 18. Hayashi H. Everton 24. Hijikata M. Aston Villa 20. Matsukubo M. North Carolina Courage 3. Minami M. Brighton 21. Moriya M. Utah Royals 10. Nagano F. Liverpool 23. Okuma A. (G) 11. Tanaka M. Utah Royals 1. Yamashita A. (G) Manchester City
Coaches
Hayes E.	Kano M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
25', Kitagawa H. ↓, Moriya M. ↑,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Davidson T. ↓, Wesley K. ↑,
46', Ueki R. ↓, Tanaka M. ↑,
46', Tanikawa M. ↓, Matsukubo M. ↑,
46', Yamamoto Y. ↓, Hamano M. ↑,
47', 1 - 0, Girma N. ⚽, Wesley K. (A),
56', 2 - 0, Lavelle R. ⚽, Rodman T. (A),
60', Miyazawa H. ↓, Hayashi H. ↑,
60', Koga T. ↓, Minami M. ↑,
63', Thompson G. ↓, Patterson A. ↑,
63', Heaps L. ↓, Coffey S. ↑,
63', Thompson A. ↓, Shaw J. ↑,
64', 3 - 0, Wesley K. ⚽, Shaw J. (A),
73', Lavelle R. ↓, Moultrie O. ↑,
73', Wilson S. ↓, Sentnor A. ↑,
73', Rodman T. ↓, Cooper M. ↑,
73', Fujino A. ↓, Chiba R. ↑,
74', Hasegawa Y. ↓, Nagano F. ↑,
74', Shimizu R. ↓, Hijikata M. ↑,
82', Hutton C. ↓, Yohannes L. ↑,
83', Girma N. ↓, Reale L. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, USA won 3.

At the moment, both teams are looking strong and ready to play.

USA could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, USA won 9 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 29:15. (average 2.2:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- USA W
Friendly International Women
14.04.26	USA W - Japan W	0:1 ✺
11.04.26	USA W - Japan W	2:1 ✺
SheBelieves Cup Women
07.03.26	USA W - Colombia W	1:0 ✺
04.03.26	USA W - Canada W	1:0 ✺
01.03.26	USA W - Argentina W	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 LWWWW
- Japan W
Friendly International Women
14.04.26	USA W - Japan W	0:1 ✺
11.04.26	USA W - Japan W	2:1 ✺
Asian Cup Women
21.03.26	Japan W - Australia W	1:0 ✺
18.03.26	South Korea W - Japan W	1:4 ✺
15.03.26	Japan W - Philippines W	7:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Friendly International Women
14.04.26	USA W - Japan W	0:1
11.04.26	USA W - Japan W	2:1
SheBelieves Cup Women
26.02.25	USA W - Japan W	1:2
Olympic Games - Football Women
03.08.24	USA W - Japan W	1:0 ET
SheBelieves Cup Women
06.04.24	USA W - Japan W	2:1
19.02.23	USA W - Japan W	1:0
11.03.20	USA W - Japan W	3:1

USA W - Japan W: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide