Match Info

NB I. - Round 25

Date: 7 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Szusza Ferenc Stadion (Budapest)

Referee: Rusz M. (Hun)

Where to Watch on TV:


Hungary	M4 Sport


	Ujpest		Paksi SE

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.4	3
	2.25	3.5	2.78
	2.3	3.8	3.1
	2.48	3.42	2.72	Watch
	2.2	3.5	2.88
	2.26	3.41	3.01
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.29 ↓ (2.58)	3.51 ↓ (3.58)	2.92 ↑ (2.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ujpest
41%

Draw
26.8%

Paksi SE
32.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.2%

26.1%

37.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.3%

25.4%

38.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ujpest has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

Paksi SE has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Paksi SE might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ujpest than the current prediction. (-5.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ujpest that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paksi SE than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Paksi SE could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	25%	50%

Ujpest - Paksi SE Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Ujpest will win (votes: 2 - 25%). Paks will win (votes: 4 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Paks: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Banai D. (G) 2. Bodnar G. 30. Nunes J. (C) 94. Stronati P. 55. Fiola A. 17. Matko A. 77. Fenyo N. 88. Ljujic M. 39. Vlijter G. 11. Horvath K. 19. Gradisar N.	1. Kovacsik A. (G) 11. Bevardi Z. 24. Lenzser B. 30. Szabo J. (C) 5. Vecsei B. 20. Zeke M. 9. Hahn J. 22. Windecker J. 8. Balogh B. 19. Horvath K. 29. Toth B.
Substitutes
8. Ademi A. 7. Beridze G. 33. Bese B. 9. Brodic F. 31. Dombo D. (G) 44. Gergenyi B. 74. Kaczvinszki D. 5. Kobouri D. 27. Krajcsovics A. 18. Lacoux T. 1. Piscitelli R. (G) 34. Tucic M.	7. Adam M. 3. Alaxai A. 28. Gyetvan M. (G) 18. Gyurkits G. 17. Hinora K. 23. Mate C. 16. Pesti Z. 14. Silye E. 25. Simon B. (G) 26. Szekszardi M. 15. Szendrei A. 6. Tamas O.
Coaches
Szelesi Z.	Bognar G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
16', Horvath K. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Hahn J. ↓, Szendrei A. ↑,
59', Vlijter G. ↓, Krajcsovics A. ↑,
59', Horvath K. ↓, Brodic F. ↑,
60', Ljujic M. 🟨,
64', Toth B. ↓, Adam M. ↑,
67', Krajcsovics A. 🟨,
71', Bodnar G. 🟨,
76', Balogh B. 🟨,
81', Fiola A. 🟥,
82', Lenzser B. 🟨,
83', Horvath K. ↓, Mate C. ↑,
83', Bevardi Z. ↓, Hinora K. ↑,
84', Brodic F. ↓, Gergenyi B. ↑,
90+1', Gradisar N. ↓, Tucic M. ↑,
90+1', Matko A. ↓, Beridze G. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ujpest won 1.

Ujpest has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Paks is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ujpest won 7 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 31:41. (average 1.6:2.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Ujpest won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 14:17. (average 1.6:1.9).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Ujpest	8	4	2	2	17:13	4	14
6	Paks	8	3	2	3	16:17	-1	11

Last Results with these Odds

Ujpest - the odds 2.58 are the expected chance of winning is 36.22%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Paksi SE - the odds 2.48 are the expected chance of winning is 37.68%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ujpest FC
Hungarian NB I
28.02.26	Győri ETO - Ujpest	2:1 ✺
21.02.26	Ujpest - Diósgyőri	2:1 ✺
13.02.26	Ujpest - Debreceni	2:1 ✺
07.02.26	Ferencvárosi - Ujpest	3:0 ✺
31.01.26	Ujpest - Puskás Academy	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 LWWLL
- Paksi SE
Hungarian NB I
28.02.26	Kisvárda - Paksi SE	2:1 ✺
22.02.26	Paksi SE - Győri ETO	3:4 ✺
14.02.26	Paksi SE - Diósgyőri	1:2 ✺
Hungarian Cup
11.02.26	Paksi SE - Diósgyőri	2:6 ✺
Hungarian NB I
07.02.26	Debreceni - Paksi SE	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Hungarian NB I
23.11.25	Paksi SE - Ujpest	1:3
10.08.25	Ujpest - Paksi SE	1:2
14.03.25	Paksi SE - Ujpest	6:1
09.11.24	Ujpest - Paksi SE	0:0
04.08.24	Paksi SE - Ujpest	2:1
31.03.24	Paksi SE - Ujpest	1:2
Hungarian Cup
29.02.24	Ujpest - Paksi SE	1:2 ET

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