Match Info

QSL - Round 14

Date: 29 January 2026, Thursday

Location: Thani bin Jassim Stadium (Doha)

Referee: Al Malla A. (Qat)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA
Qatar	Al Kass One, Shoof


	Umm-Salal		Al-Arabi Doha

	1	X	2
	4.35	4.35	1.58
	4.85	4.62	1.59
	4.72	4.58	1.56	Watch
	4.5	4	1.57
	4.85	4.33	1.51	Watch
	4.75	4.5	1.54
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.67 ↑ (4.37)	4.4 ↓ (4.41)	1.56 ↓ (1.61)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Umm-Salal
19.8%

Draw
21%

Al-Arabi Doha
59.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.3%

21.1%

57.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.3%

20.1%

60.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Umm-Salal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

Al-Arabi Doha has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Umm-Salal than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Al-Arabi Doha than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10%	20%	70%

Umm Salal - Al Arabi Doha Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Umm-Salal will win (votes: 1 - 10%). Al-Arabi will win (votes: 7 - 70%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Al-Arabi: 41.6% – 98.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Al-Arabi (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

O/U 5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Ashour L. (G) 2. Fayez A. 19. Laidouni N. 37. Diallo A. 3. Hazaa A. 4. Issa S. 32. El Sayed A. 6. Aholou J. 14. Tannane O. (C) 9. Mance A. 33. Cristo	31. Al Hail J. (G) 4. Al Hussain A. 24. Sherif M. 25. Perez A. 3. Al Naimi M. 8. Fathi A. (C) 21. Veretout J. 10. Rodri 7. Sarabia P. 80. Lihadji I. 18. Toko Ekambi K.
Substitutes
20. Afif A. 8. Al Hajri S. 11. Al Shammari M. 40. Khaled M. 17. Kouassi J. E. 44. Mahdi Al Mejaba 7. Mansour K. 30. Mohammad J. (G) 21. Saad K. 5. Said F. 16. Suhail R. 15. Tahif A.	12. Al Salati A. 99. Darros J. P. 9. Gouda M. 16. Hernandez G. 29. Hernandez J. 19. Laye G. 27. Moein Doozandeh A. 44. Mohamad H. 30. Mohamed Saeed (G) 14. Olunga M. 17. Reda S. 5. Simo
Coaches
Ribeiro D.	Contra C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
36', Fayez A. 🟥,
38', 0 - 1, Sarabia P. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (2 - 3)
46', Issa S. ↓, Saad K. ↑,
48', 0 - 2, Aholou J. (Own goal),
58', 0 - 3, Toko Ekambi K. ⚽, Rodri (A),
59', Sarabia P. ↓, Olunga M. ↑,
59', Cristo ↓, Kouassi J. E. ↑,
59', El Sayed A. ↓, Said F. ↑,
62', 0 - 4, Lihadji I. ⚽,
68', Aholou J. ↓, Tahif A. ↑,
68', Hazaa A. ↓, Al Hajri S. ↑,
69', 1 - 4, Laidouni N. ⚽, Tannane O. (A),
70', Sherif M. ↓, Gouda M. ↑,
70', Toko Ekambi K. ↓, Hernandez G. ↑,
71', Lihadji I. ↓, Simo ↑,
75', Al Hussain A. 🟥,
77', Veretout J. ↓, Al Salati A. ↑,
82', Tannane O. 🟨,
83', Al Naimi M. 🟨,
88', 2 - 4, Mance A. ⚽, Al Hajri S. (A),
90+3', Mance A. (Penalty Awarded),
90+4', Al Salati A. 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 12 in the zone Relegation ~ Division 2 and 5).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Umm-Salal won 3.

Umm-Salal has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Al-Arabi is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Al-Arabi may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Al-Arabi has had a series of home games.

In this match, Al-Arabi is a strong favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Umm-Salal won 6 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 25:33. (average 1.3:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Umm-Salal won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 13:17. (average 1.3:1.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Al Arabi	4	1	3	0	5:3	2	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Umm-Salal SC
Qatar QSL Cup
19.01.26	Umm-Salal - Al Duhail	3:0 ✺
Qatar QSL
16.01.26	Al-Shahania - Umm-Salal	3:0 ✺
06.01.26	Umm-Salal - Al-Gharafa	2:3 ✺
29.12.25	Al-Ahli Doha - Umm-Salal	0:3 ✺
Qatar QSL Cup
14.12.25	Lusail City - Umm-Salal	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 WLLWT
- Al-Arabi Doha SC
Qatar QSL Cup
26.01.26	Al-Arabi Doha - Qatar SC	3:2 penalties ✺
19.01.26	Al-Arabi Doha - Al-Sadd	5:0 ✺
Qatar QSL
15.01.26	Al-Arabi Doha - Al-Gharafa	1:2 ✺
07.01.26	Al-Wakrah - Al-Arabi Doha	0:1 ✺
28.12.25	Al-Arabi Doha - Al-Rayyan	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 WWLWT

Latest Head to Head

Qatar QSL
29.08.25	Al-Arabi Doha - Umm-Salal	3:2
18.04.25	Umm-Salal - Al-Arabi Doha	2:0
Qatar QSL Cup
13.12.24	Al-Arabi Doha - Umm-Salal	2:1
Qatar QSL
08.12.24	Al-Arabi Doha - Umm-Salal	0:3
17.04.24	Umm-Salal - Al-Arabi Doha	2:1
Qatar QSL Cup
06.01.24	Umm-Salal - Al-Arabi Doha	5:4 penalties
18.11.23	Umm-Salal - Al-Arabi Doha	0:0

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