Match Info

QSL - Round 12

Date: 6 January 2026, Tuesday

Location: Thani bin Jassim Stadium (Doha)

Referee: Falahi S. A. (Qat)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 5, TOD
Qatar	Al Kass One, Shoof


	Umm-Salal		Al-Gharafa

	1	X	2
	3.95	3.85	1.72
	4.01	4.23	1.71	Watch
	4	3.8	1.67
	4.17	3.75	1.69	Watch
	4.25	4.2	1.64
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.08 ↓ (6)	3.97 ↓ (5)	1.69 ↑ (1.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Umm-Salal
22.5%

Draw
23.1%

Al-Gharafa
54.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

15.4%

18.5%

66.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

15%

18%

67.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Umm-Salal has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Umm-Salal's performance.

Al-Gharafa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Al-Gharafa might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Umm-Salal than the current prediction. (-7.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Umm-Salal that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Al-Gharafa than the current prediction. (+13.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Al-Gharafa could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Umm Salal - Al Gharafa Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Al-Gharafa (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Ashour L. (G) 2. Fayez A. 19. Laidouni N. 15. Tahif A. 22. Udosen E. 10. Baidoo M. 32. El Sayed A. 6. Aholou J. 11. Al Shammari M. 14. Tannane O. (C) 33. Cristo	1. Khalifa A. B. (G) 26. Al-Ali R. A. 20. Jang Hyun-Soo 6. Traore D. 11. Surag A. 13. Sassi F. 29. Diaz F. 99. Hamed J. 27. Holgate M. 8. Brahimi Y. (C) 9. Joselu
Substitutes
20. Afif A. 27. Haroon D. 3. Hazaa A. 4. Issa S. 17. Kouassi J. E. 9. Mance A. 7. Mansour K. 30. Mohammad J. (G) 21. Saad K. 18. Sheikh A. 16. Suhail R. 80. Wadi M.	45. Al Ashwal W. 57. Al Khilif Y. 19. Al Zarra J. 17. Boussafi R. 7. Coman F. 14. Djalo A. 16. Friakh J. 34. Gamal M. (G) 80. Ktit Z. 40. Lecomte C. (G) 22. Sudarmanto A.
Coaches
Carteron P.	Martins P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
6', 0 - 1, Hamed J. ⚽,
31', Surag A. 🟨,
34', Sassi F. ↓, Al Khlif Y. M. ↑,
45+5', 0 - 2, Hamed J. ⚽, Surag A. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', El Sayed A. ↓, Mansour K. ↑,
46', Al Shammari M. ↓, Suhail R. ↑,
53', Traore D. 🟨,
70', Hamed J. ↓, Coman F. ↑,
71', Sassi F. 🟨,
75', Aholou J. ↓, Mance A. ↑,
79', 0 - 3, Coman F. ⚽, Brahimi Y. (A),
86', 1 - 3, Mance A. ⚽, Fayez A. (A),
89', 2 - 3, Cristo ⚽,
90+1', Holgate M. 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 10 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Umm-Salal won 1.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Recently, Umm-Salal has had a series of away games.

In this match, Al-Gharafa is a strong favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Umm-Salal won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 28:42. (average 1.4:2.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Umm-Salal won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 15:17. (average 1.7:1.9).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Al Gharafa	4	1	1	2	4:8	-4	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Umm-Salal SC
Qatar QSL
29.12.25	Al-Ahli Doha - Umm-Salal	0:3 ✺
Qatar QSL Cup
14.12.25	Lusail City - Umm-Salal	3:3 ✺
06.12.25	Qatar SC - Umm-Salal	6:1 ✺
29.11.25	Al-Waab - Umm-Salal	1:2 ✺
Qatar QSL
22.11.25	Umm-Salal - Al-Rayyan	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 WTLWL
- Al-Gharafa SC
Qatar QSL
27.12.25	Al-Shahania - Al-Gharafa	3:0 ✺
AFC Champions League
22.12.25	Al-Gharafa - Al-Wahda	1:0 ✺
Qatar QSL Cup
13.12.25	Al-Wakrah - Al-Gharafa	2:3 ✺
AFC Champions League
24.11.25	Shabab Al-Ahli - Al-Gharafa	2:0 ✺
Qatar QSL
21.11.25	Al-Gharafa - Al-Wakrah	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.4 LWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Qatar QSL
15.08.25	Al-Gharafa - Umm-Salal	4:2
Qatar Emir Cup
19.05.25	Al-Gharafa - Umm-Salal	4:2
Qatar QSL
07.03.25	Umm-Salal - Al-Gharafa	0:1
18.10.24	Al-Gharafa - Umm-Salal	3:1
Qatar QSL Cup
05.10.24	Umm-Salal - Al-Gharafa	5:0
Qatar Emir Cup
14.05.24	Umm-Salal - Al-Gharafa	2:4
Qatar QSL
07.04.24	Al-Gharafa - Umm-Salal	1:1

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