Match Info

TURKEY: SUPER LIG - ROUND 20

Date: 23 January 2023, Monday

Location: Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu (Istanbul)

Referee: Bitigen A. (Tur)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	SportKlub
Croatia	SportKlub
Czech-republic	Sport 1
France	beIN Sports Max
Portugal	Sport TV
Romania	Prima Sport 3
Serbia	SportKlub
Slovenia	SportKlub
Turkey	beIN Sports 1


	Umraniyespor		Fenerbahçe

	1	X	2
	6	4.75	1.45	Watch
	6.25	4.5	1.44
	6	4.5	1.46
	6	4.6	1.44
	6.55	4.71	1.5
	6.5	4.4	1.44
	6.3	4.8	1.44	Watch
	6	4.5	1.47
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.2 ↑ (5.28)	4.6 ↑ (4.42)	1.46 ↓ (1.51)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Umraniyespor
15.1%

Draw
20.4%

Fenerbahçe
64.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

17.6%

21%

61.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18%

20.5%

60%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Umraniyespor has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

Fenerbahçe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Umraniyespor than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fenerbahçe than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
4.7%	3.7%	91.6%

Umraniyespor - Fenerbahçe Predictions

Users Predictions: Fenerbahçe will win (98 of 107 users predict this - 91.59%).
Confidence interval (95%): 86.33% – 96.85%. The data is statistically significant.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and outsider (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ 1. Lig and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa Conference League (Qualification)).

Umraniyespor has the most likely position - 19 (34.2%), has project points - 31, has currently - 14, has a good chance of relegated (78%), has a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Fenerbahçe has the most likely position - 2 (38.13%), has project points - 73, has currently - 38, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a chance of qualify for ucl (26%), has a chance of win league (26%).

This event has quality 40, importance 53, match rating 46. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Recent matches Umraniyespor is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Fenerbahçe is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

In this match Fenerbahçe is the unquestionable favorite.

There will not play in Fenerbahçe: Sangare N. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Umraniyespor: Epureanu A. (Injury)

There are questionable in Fenerbahçe: Joao Pedro (Knee Injury)

Last 3 head-to-head matches Umraniyespor won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 5-3.

Including matches at home between the teams Umraniyespor won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Umraniyespor
Turkish Cup
18.01.23	Umraniyespor - Trabzonspor	1:4 ET ✺
Turkish Super League
15.01.23	Umraniyespor - İstanbulspor	0:2 ✺
08.01.23	Giresunspor - Umraniyespor	0:1 ✺
03.01.23	Umraniyespor - Hatayspor	2:2 ✺
27.12.22	Ankaragücü - Umraniyespor	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.2 LLWTW
- Fenerbahçe
Turkish Cup
19.01.23	Fenerbahçe - Çaykur Rizespor	2:1 ✺
Turkish Super League
15.01.23	Gaziantep - Fenerbahçe	1:2 ✺
08.01.23	Fenerbahçe - Galatasaray	0:3 ✺
03.01.23	Antalyaspor - Fenerbahçe	1:2 ✺
27.12.22	Fenerbahçe - Hatayspor	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Turkish Super League
08.08.22	Fenerbahçe - Umraniyespor	3:3
Turkish Cup
24.01.19	Fenerbahçe - Umraniyespor	0:1
17.01.19	Umraniyespor - Fenerbahçe	1:0

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